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126 commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
alex
989c692c53 rng: model chance(), the only entry point that can cost zero words
Both early-outs return without touching the generator: p <= 0 false, p >= 1
true, otherwise exactly one word compared with a strict <. The zero-cost cases
decide stream alignment wherever a caller's probability climbs -- the spy
counter-mission adds 0.2f per failed turn and stops drawing entirely from the
fifth. A model without the early-outs drifts one word from there on, for ever.

NaN takes neither early-out in the original, so it draws and returns false;
reproduced rather than smoothed over.
2026-09-08 22:32:14 -04:00
alex
68a9fc824d sync header after AC merge 2026-09-08 21:34:48 -04:00
alex
06d2ddfeec AC: address fragment for the trade-raid gate (regenerated header)
Adds lane-ac.json's six entries via tools/gen_addresses.py: the trade-sector
node-kind gate, the StarMapNode kind ctor, the raid predicate and the two
per-player trade-sector masks, plus the spy detection-roll branch as a
hypothesis. Header regenerated, never hand-resolved (rule 14).

Also removes FUN_xxxxxxxx identifiers from docs/AC-predictions.md, which
clean_room_check.sh caught.
2026-09-08 21:31:39 -04:00
alex
b1c61a827a sync header after SD merge 2026-09-08 20:52:40 -04:00
alex
0f75048849 AC: prediction addendum from the static gate decode, before any active-state measurement 2026-09-08 20:35:31 -04:00
alex
7f04bcc88b lane WS: pay the ratchet debt -- type the five new bodies, do not move the bar
The corpus went 11 -> 19 saves and named coverage fell to 97.6% against a 99.99
bar. Rule 27 says type the content. Typed, all from the recovered wire schema
plus the records the new trade/spy saves finally carry:

  Game::CombatPlayerReport  the <rest:prep> tail -- ncls run of six per ship
                            class, nsec run of two per section, ndam, srep
  Game::CombatShipReport    srep elements (caps2 is an i64; dami/damt f32)
  Game::TacReport           TRnc is a COUNT and TRships/TRsats/TRshipsL are one
                            loop body, INTERLEAVED on the wire -- not three
                            trailing runs. Two lanes could not settle this
                            because TRnc was 0 in every save until tonight.
  Game::TacReportEvents     TRby / TRto
  Game::FleetLayout         Lay: a FieldTemplate frame then a count and its ids
  Game::TradeRoute          rt -- a container write with NO count word, read as
                            an uncounted run keyed on the tag
  Game::ServerTradeSector::FreighterWarning   fwarn elements
  Game::SpyCraft            spy elements
  Game::WeaponGroups        Dwg, and Game::GunBankSelection under it

Corrections found on the way, both silent until a shape was bound to the table:

  * Game::CombatReport: auto and cdst are BOOLs, dur/cdt/cdi are FLOATS. All
    five were ints here. Four are 0/1 everywhere so the bytes never moved; cdt
    is not, and was being read as 1070805848 instead of 1.598.
  * Game::CombatWeaponReport: the damage quartet is flat and dami/damt are
    floats. The old shape reached them through obj_flex, modelling a nested
    `dams` frame the binary does not write. That also made CoverageArchive
    charge one phantom typed item per weapon report -- exactly 8/13/21/32 on the
    four affected saves -- so the pre-fix coverage figures were slightly
    optimistic as well as too low.

FTPnts stays carried: it is the one item the recovery itself marks unresolved,
its count is 0 in every save, and element framing is a property of the helper --
the SysMem / mts / nalat trap. The workload that settles it is a save with a
stored fleet tactical formation.

Named coverage, per save, before -> after:
  human-turn5-traderoutes   99.0003% -> 99.9951%
  human-turn8-traderoutes   98.6349% -> 99.9955%
  human-turn11-spytechs     97.6382% -> 99.9959%
  human-turn15-spyprogram   96.9412% -> 99.9964%
  the other 16 saves        unchanged, 99.9940-99.9953%
  corpus                    99.5021% -> 99.9949%

All 20 saves are above the ratchet; the only opaque items left anywhere are the
two of the RNG blob. 14 new shapes bound to the wire schema, every one a full
match: 100 shapes, 966 items, 0 MISMATCH. ctest 58/58 over all 20 saves, both
round trips byte-identical, 0 errors and 0 warnings.
2026-09-08 20:14:18 -04:00
alex
7e726b9074 AC: predictions before the active-contents workload
Written before the game was started. Records one correction to lane L3 up front:
the turn-15 save already has a trade sector with tsnumflt=1 (the AI's), so 'any
freighter anywhere' is already falsified as the gate for the trade callees.
2026-09-08 20:14:14 -04:00
alex
b67362b999 SD: predictions for the ship-design composer, written before the build
The cost model for 0x006ad700 read from the instruction stream: nine live draw
sites, an exit taxonomy saying what each of the eight bail-outs has already
drawn, and a closed form for the loop-carried draw's trip count

  f  = 1.00 / 0.75 / 0.50 by request flags, hull size and one 0.3 coin
  M  = (int)(N * f)
  D' = max(1, (N + 1) / M)
  L  = #{ qualifying mounts j : PointDefence section, or j mod D' == 0 }

with the falsifiable corollary that the 0.3 coin can only move the word count
at N in {1,2,3,5}, and that N=1 with f<1 enters the loop and draws nothing.

Also predicts client 32's seven turn-1 words as two composer calls -- a
costOnly=1 price query (A+B+C) and a costOnly=0 build (A+B+C+F) -- which is
read statically off 0x006cda40's two push sites, not fitted to the number.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ARBgSooAfokKUy6wKUKEyZ
2026-09-08 20:08:40 -04:00
alex
c36b560cf0 merge lane L3 (header regenerated) 2026-09-08 19:47:40 -04:00
alex
f99488af9f merge lane PAR (header regenerated, not hand-resolved) 2026-09-08 19:38:32 -04:00
alex
e1995e6b11 PAR: roll parity -- the AI's per-turn RNG word count is NOT fixed, at any scope
New shim module `ai_rng`: a bracket on StrategyClient::OnResumePlaying over the per-client
generator at +0x134, with two independent measurements per bracket (an observer on the existing
seven draw-site detours, and `left` read straight off the object) plus AI-call-site attribution
through the cl_* facades and an optional seed pin.

Measured on VM140/VM145, six runs, five fresh processes, unpinned autosaves byte-identical to the
published oracle:

  turn2->turn3   human 0, AI 32 -> 3 words, AI 496 -> 0, AI 512 -> 0
  turn1->turn2   human 0, AI 32 -> 7 words, AI 496 -> 0, AI 512 -> 1 word ... or 3

The last row is the answer: 512 makes ONE cl_RandRange call (the research-target tie-break at
0x006a8495, phase 18) and that one call cost 1 word in one process and 3 in another, because
RNG_NextInt is an unbounded rejection loop. The count is not fixed across clients, across turns,
or across processes with the path held fixed.

Also found: cl_RandFloat 0x00579c70, a third cl_* RNG facade that reaches RNG_NextFloat by a TAIL
JUMP and so leaves no rel32 edge for a call-graph sweep -- which is why ai-turn-logic.md 5's "zero
NextFloat calls from the AI module" reads as true when it is not.

The instrument caught its own defect: RNG_Chance calls RNG_NextFloat and both are detoured, so a
drawn word was reported twice. left_delta was never affected, which is the point of having two
measurements.

Gates run separately on a fresh build directory: clean_room_check OK, host ctest 55/55, CT111 shim
cross-build OK.
2026-09-08 19:32:19 -04:00
alex
9fcf220bae merge lane CB: capture with payloads and seeds (header regenerated, not hand-resolved) 2026-09-08 19:27:40 -04:00
alex
cd17280f01 CB: record the third pinned run
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ARBgSooAfokKUy6wKUKEyZ
2026-09-08 19:26:33 -04:00
alex
cd92076b39 CB: the engine-side record of the capture instrument and what it measured
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ARBgSooAfokKUy6wKUKEyZ
2026-09-08 19:22:16 -04:00
alex
c2eba45850 CB: drop the list-5 rates record rather than ship a wrong one
Lane RB consumed the capture and found the record was wrong: the element is dumped in
memory order and its memory field order is not its wire order. Memory member 1 is wire
member SRsc; six members are unread. RB's first replay regressed two leaves on exactly
that.

The values now ship as rates_memory_order_{u32,f32} with wire: null, and the .tcb emits
the seven '?' tokens RB's own converter emits, so a replayer refuses rather than guesses.
A missing field is honest; a mislabelled one propagates -- and a capture is meant to
outlive whatever adapter happened to read it.

Also records the outcomes against every prediction, including the one the consumer
falsified.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ARBgSooAfokKUy6wKUKEyZ
2026-09-08 19:10:28 -04:00
alex
6699f543bc watch.mode=cont: both containers, both ends, re-armed every turn; and hooks=off no longer disarms the watchpoints
Lane L3 needed to watch the trade-route and spy-program vectors across a whole game
played forward, not one turn of one save. `modcount` and `tshn` arm once on purpose --
their targets are picked from one turn's state and re-picking them would move the
measurement -- so this is a third mode rather than a change to either.

`cont` puts all four debug slots on the two containers, `_Myfirst` as well as `_Mylast`.
Both vectors are default-constructed with all three pointers zero, so the first element
writes all three: watching only `_Mylast` cannot separate "allocated for the first time"
from "appended to an existing buffer", and those are different events in the model this
lane set out to falsify. It re-arms and re-logs on every End Turn, and the canary
self-test's counter is therefore read as a delta -- on the arm-once modes the delta is
the old value, so their log lines are byte-identical.

`ReportContainer` is factored out of `ArmTshnSlots` so both modes emit the same container
line. Lane W3's published count=0 is the control every later count is compared against,
and a reformatted line would have made that comparison a judgement call.

The defect: `Shim_Init` returned before `install_watchpoints` whenever the trace mode was
`off`, so `hooks=off watch=on` printed `watch=on` in the banner and armed absolutely
nothing -- a config that reports a confident zero, which is the failure method rule 1
exists to catch. The watchpoints are an independent instrument with their own arming
detour and no trace records, and a long play session wants them without paying 30-45 s
per End Turn for template hooks that measure nothing it is asking about. MinHook is now
initialised and the module installed on the `hooks=off` path when `watch=on`.

Configs: shim.cfg.l3cont / .l3control differ in exactly one key for rule 19;
.l3probe is lane H's hp11 verbatim plus the three watch keys, so the entry counts stay
comparable to lane H's empty-container baseline line for line.

Gates: clean_room_check OK; host ctest 54/54; CT111 shim cross-build OK, exports 66
names identical.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ARBgSooAfokKUy6wKUKEyZ
2026-09-08 19:10:10 -04:00
alex
e2fb08f55f merge lane RB: --turn-commands replay (game_ai test list union-resolved; header regenerated) 2026-09-08 19:08:34 -04:00
alex
c3d95dd44f CB: the seed capture and its predictions -- the seeds are part of the stream
Lane L1 found each AI client's generator takes a fresh per-process word, so the AI is
MT19937 from one word per client and game/ai is a function of (save, seed). A capture
without the seeds records the answer without the input.

- aiseed=log|pin on StrategyApp::RunAI: one detour that reads the fourth stack argument
  where the callee reads it, and in pin mode replaces it. Both modes log observed AND
  used, so a pinned run says so in its own capture.
- aiorders.words= widens the element window past list 1's 48-byte horizon.
- aiorders.deep= follows the heap: the route vector, the counted vector and the
  Population body were ABSENT from every capture so far, not empty.
- tools/turncommands_capture.py (in sots-re) does the typing offline, so a corrected
  element record costs a re-parse rather than a VM run.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ARBgSooAfokKUy6wKUKEyZ
2026-09-08 18:59:24 -04:00
alex
1e6474b31c RB: predictions for the recorded-command replay, before the module exists
The headline is one number: our turn writes ModCount 14 where the oracle writes 24, and the
missing ten are the turn's command stream. P1 decomposes the ten and names what each near
miss would mean; P5 predicts the secondary pair closes five leaves and must NOT close the
sixth, because the recording is from a run that diverged there.
2026-09-08 18:33:17 -04:00
alex
6ba2c796fc merge lane L2: combat multiplayer verified in lockstep with zero GameSpy; 3370 never binds 2026-09-08 18:32:19 -04:00
alex
7c0c395bea sync header after L4 merge 2026-09-08 18:32:19 -04:00
alex
4457249b88 CB: predictions and the capture format, before the instrument changes
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ARBgSooAfokKUy6wKUKEyZ
2026-09-08 18:30:54 -04:00
alex
c67374d2e3 CB: take lane L4's ai_orders instrument as the base for the command-stream capture
The capture lane needs the block dump L4 built; branching off main without it
would mean writing the same detour twice. Header regenerated from sots-re
(rule 14), not hand-resolved: 1,217 entries.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ARBgSooAfokKUy6wKUKEyZ
2026-09-08 18:28:18 -04:00
lane-l4
c842d44d62 L4: engine doc for the research-selection capture 2026-09-08 18:26:59 -04:00
alex
4f25f1e8c0 merge lane L1 (header regenerated from addresses.json + fragments, not hand-resolved) 2026-09-08 18:25:53 -04:00
alex
fa53e02b53 L1: probe the AI client seed across two processes -- it is fresh every time
Two hooks, Mars::RNG::Seed 0x0049fdf0 and StrategyApp::RunAI 0x008706f0, and a
config that turns everything else off. Two launches from the same save, load
only -- the AI clients are constructed on load, so no End Turn is needed.

Result: every AI client's generator seed differs between processes (net 32,
496 and 512 all move), while the record structure is byte-for-byte the same
shape and one Seed call with seed=0 produces an identical state in both runs.
So the turn1-state -> turn2 nondeterminism is a SEED effect, not the ordering
effect that was predicted, and lane AI1's 'every draw from the static generator
returns 0' is falsified by measurement.

The prediction said the opposite and is left in docs/L1-predictions.md with its
outcome underneath.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ARBgSooAfokKUy6wKUKEyZ
2026-09-08 18:22:14 -04:00
lane-l4
ec8d841dba L4: predictions for the research-selection tie set, before the instrument 2026-09-08 18:06:31 -04:00
lane-l4
c769394b57 L4: credit lane L5 for the turn-1 nondeterminism, and record what the block dump adds to it 2026-09-08 18:03:18 -04:00
lane-l4
4a5c218a35 L4: read the AI's command block out of the running game
New shim module src/shim/hooks/ai_orders.{h,cpp}: one register-transparent entry
stub on StrategySim::ApplyTurnCommandBatch dumps every submitted TurnCommands block
(six gates, 27 list lengths, element bytes) at the point where all of them are
complete in memory; sixteen entry probes, with RunTaskList's stub recording the
pass so every later hit is pass-attributed.

Two workloads on VM145, one End Turn each. The rule-19 control passed with all
seventeen detours installed: both autosaves byte-identical to the published oracle.

What the AI actually emits, and three things no reading had produced:
  - a list-23 element on EVERY turn, the first element ever observed in the free
    half of the cost table -- and both turns still cost the measured 12;
  - the ids in AI commands are client-allocated and travel in the command (design
    18, fleet 34; neither exists in the input save);
  - pass 0 emits nothing, measured from element counts rather than inferred.

tests/game_ai/test_live_blocks.cpp rebuilds both captured blocks through the public
OrderClient API and asserts the list profile, element values, gate counts and
ModCount total: 44 checks. Kept separate from test_orders.cpp, which stays the
record of what static reading predicted.

Gates: clean_room_check OK, host ctest 55/55, CT111 shim cross-build exit 0.
2026-09-08 18:01:19 -04:00
alex
b39bb290e3 L5: the interest literals verified live at a boundary, with a control that fails
`ComputeBudget`'s savings-interest term is now compared against the running game at
a treasury the corpus actually contains. Three runs on VM146 from turn1-state.sav:

  A (widened floats, as shipped)   3,895 calls, 0 diverged, 0 undeclared writes
  B (exact decimals, the control)  2,718 calls, 1,359 diverged

The game fills savingsInterest with 499 at a treasury of 50,000, and with 380 at
38,100 -- the exact decimals pay 500 and 381. Every divergence in B lands on a
treasury that is a multiple of 100 and no other state diverges at all, which is
exactly the arithmetic. G3's rule-23 reading is now measured, not inferred, and the
one-money error is shown to propagate into `available` and `researchMoney` too.

The control also settles why the earlier 4,437-call green run was green: slot 5 IS
diffed and the harness CAN see it, so that run simply presented no boundary state.
Coverage is therefore reported as distinct states, not calls: 5 distinct treasuries,
2 of them on the boundary.

Two further rule-23 constants found in the same routine by an operand-width sweep,
corrected, and honestly marked UNVERIFIED because no reference turn can see them:

  - the research-yield factor is a widened 0.85f while its two neighbours in the
    same product are exact doubles. Boundary: research money a multiple of 40,000;
    the run presented 9 distinct values and none is.
  - the three research modifiers are summed in single precision, not double.
    Boundary: two of the three non-zero; the corpus has shrm = TRM = 0.

Both are pinned by boundary cases in test_economy.cpp that fail with the decimals.

Also verified live, in the same run:
  - T31's difficulty-column recovery. The live ServerPlayer+0xf9 / NPC flags on all
    eight players are exactly what lane PL's save-only inversion claims, including
    the awkward system-owning player that is still ambiguous because it is an NPC.
  - BANKRUPTCY_PROTECTION_LIMIT_FACTOR reads 3.29999995 = (float)3.3. Its file image
    is zero because the loader fills it at run time, so lane PL-3 had to assume the
    value; it is now measured and the assumption was right.

Falsified, and recorded as such: the difficulty-mods record does NOT sit inline at
ServerPlayer+0x36c -- that field is a heap pointer on all eight players. The row IS
reachable from a ServerPlayer (which corrects the hook's standing coverage note),
but the fitted {3.0,1.5}/{1.0,1.0} pair remains unverified. The hook logs the
pointer and does not follow it.

The `verified` column stays 0, deliberately. Every phase this compare touches is
Partial for reasons upstream of it, and promoting one because part of it was checked
is the drift app_test_catalog exists to catch. What moved is models; see
docs/L5-live-verification.md for each one with its coverage.

Gates run separately: clean-room OK, host ctest 54/54, CT111 shim cross-build exit 0.
2026-09-08 17:48:42 -04:00
alex
2947e24ed9 L1: hook BeginProcessTurn and the three script-object writers a turn reaches
Lane SV recovered the script-object subsystem statically and predicted that
SVSOSwarmQueen::RegisterHives takes one RNG_NextInt per new hive inside
StrategyServer::BeginProcessTurn -- which runs inside lane Z's autosave bracket
and outside every one of its subtotals, so a draw there had never been
attributed by anything.

Five nested trace hooks, each declaring the strategic generator as a region and
each carrying a model evaluated at entry so the record can disagree with it:

  StrategyServer::BeginProcessTurn        the unhooked interval, plus a region
                                          over Frame so the increment is a fact
    SVSOSwarmQueen::OnTurnBegin           evt 0x13, vtable slot +0x60
      SVSOSwarmQueen::RegisterHives       predict_new_hives from the original's
                                          own two predicates; reads the LO/HI
                                          config pointers live
      SVSOSwarmQueen::TickHives           the NextQ slip and its three gates
    SVSOSlaversRefuel::UpdateDifficultyTier  tail phase 20; a 4-byte region over
                                          CDiff so a store and its ABSENCE are
                                          distinguishable (method rule 20)

Also watch.mode=snlv: one arming line moves slot 1 from the NVO map's _Mysize to
the target system's SnLv, and the arming sweep now prints SnLv with its decoded
per-player 2-bit levels for every system, which costs no debug register.

Measured on VM140: hive creation costs 2 words in BeginProcessTurn and the
residual outside the two turn drivers is 2, not 0; the next turn it is 0 again.
LO=20 HI=30. Spica's SnLv reads 0x200 with AFlags 0. The oracle reproduced
byte for byte with every one of these detours live.

Predictions and outcomes: docs/L1-predictions.md.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ARBgSooAfokKUy6wKUKEyZ
2026-09-08 17:43:10 -04:00
lane-l4
45bf085981 L4: predictions for the live AI order capture, before the module exists 2026-09-08 17:07:15 -04:00
alex
1e7517e382 L2: predictions for the multiplayer combat run, before the run 2026-09-08 17:01:56 -04:00
alex
fe8ed45de4 merge lane SV: script-object event bus (CMake lists merged into their constructs, rule 22) 2026-09-08 16:48:49 -04:00
alex
2d93404c67 SV: the script-object event bus, and what it writes in a turn
`SvSctOb` is not written by direct calls. Every update goes through an event bus: a
driver notifies the root object with an integer id, the root fans the delivery out to
every child, and each delivery is two steps -- a generic handler that takes the id, then
one event-specific vtable slot that does not. The id -> slot map is a 33-entry jump table
in the image, so which class reacts to which event is recovered and exhaustive rather than
inferred from what the saves happen to show. Five of the 33 rows are not in slot order,
including two the tail sends.

Three handlers write the eight leaves that diverged:

  * the slavers' difficulty tier, on the tail's end-of-turn delivery -- a three-record
    stack table scanned against the frame, boundaries 1/50/100, stored only on a change,
    and at frame 100 and above the scan runs off the end and stores nothing, so the tier
    can never reach 2;
  * the refugees' one-shot latch, on the turn-begin delivery, with a design instantiation
    behind the same latch that nothing here can do;
  * the swarm queen's hives, also at turn begin, registered on the systems carrying the
    SWARM's scenario tag (the queen's constructor stores 3 for that and 10 for its own
    encounter id) and then ticked -- and the tick is the whole explanation of a target
    turn that reads 31 after one turn and 32 after the next. It is not re-rolled; it slips
    forward by one every turn the spawn gates stay shut.

New host phase H03 for the turn-begin delivery, run right after the frame counter where
the original sends it, and tail phase T20 implemented. Rules are pure in game/sim.

Measured on CT111, closed and regressed stated separately:

  default                 turn1->turn2  209 -> 126 (was 128)  closed 83, regressed 0
                          turn2->turn3  108 ->  67 (was  69)  closed 41, regressed 0
  --commit-blocked=H03    turn1->turn2  209 -> 124            closed 87, regressed 2
                          turn2->turn3  108 ->  67            closed 41, regressed 0

Registering a hive closes the four leaves that say which systems have hives and that they
have no queens, and opens two carrying a target turn known to be wrong: the original draws
it from the strategic generator inside the turn-begin step, outside both turn drivers, and
neither the two data-file constants nor the generator's position there is settled. That
trade is a flag, not a default.

The prediction in docs/SV-script-objects.md was committed before the build, and P5 was
wrong: it called the second pair a null control, and the second pair is where the slip
rule is tested EXACTLY -- two hives, two target turns, both landing on the oracle with no
draw and no fitting.

Gates run separately: clean-room OK, host ctest 51/51, CT111 shim cross-build clean.
2026-09-08 16:46:25 -04:00
alex
5d245e4c8b merge lane W3: TShn writer trapped and gate named (158/158); Player.Status predicate settled; AI4 prediction confirmed 2026-09-08 16:42:20 -04:00
alex
ca1b8c2cba docs: name 0x00743ec0 in the W3 predictions -- clean_room_check rejected the raw identifier
The prediction text is unchanged; only the decompiler-style identifier is replaced with the name
lane E3 had already recorded for it. Rule 13's gate did exactly its job on a doc that had been
committed before the build.
2026-09-08 16:39:23 -04:00
alex
9e914ef358 W3: watch.mode=tshn -- arm the NVO/TShn record and the trade+spy containers from the same S
Second mode in lane W2's watchpoint module. No second hook: only different arithmetic on the S the
ApplyAllTurnCommands detour already holds.

- picks the target system by predicate at arm time (AFlags == 0, NVO non-empty) and logs all 28
  systems, so the choice is auditable rather than a hard-coded pointer;
- probes both candidate ServerSystem bases and logs how many systems validate under each, which
  settled a documentation dispute (+0x274: 9, +0x26c: 0) by measurement;
- prints the trade-route and spy-program vector triples, which is the workload-confirmation
  instrument two earlier lanes lacked.

Rule 19 control passed: the armed run reproduced the determinism oracle byte for byte.
2026-09-08 16:38:55 -04:00
alex
26b041106f PL: decompose the /Sim/players residual; S00 PvSav snapshot; T31 recovers its difficulty column from the save; the bankruptcy protection factor is a widened float
Closed 2 on the reference pair and 4 on pair 2, regressed 0, with no operator
input. Measured, both pairs, never netted.

- S00 stamps PvSav from Sav on every live player, before any phase can move it.
  0 closed on pair 1 (a no-op there), 2 on pair 2.
- T31 recovers the per-player difficulty column by recomputing BnkEl from the
  colony state the input save was written from and comparing against the BnkEl
  the save carries. That removes the --ai-player flag as a blocker and turns the
  phase's self-check into a real one: it used to compare its POST-turn result
  against the PRE-turn stored value, so its 6-of-8 only ever covered the six
  players whose limit does not move. The load-time check passes for every live
  player of all eleven corpus saves. T31 Blocked -> Partial; BnkPr still needs
  the tuning constant.
- BANKRUPTCY_PROTECTION_LIMIT_FACTOR is multiplied in as fmul dword ptr, so it
  is a float32 in the image; the engine narrows it now. Zero leaves move on this
  corpus -- all seven of its BnkPr records land where the two constants agree --
  and three hand-written test expectations moved (rule 23).

docs/PL-players-residual.md carries the decomposition, the predictions written
before the build, where they were wrong, and the ranked remainder.
2026-09-08 16:34:40 -04:00
alex
c852965e0e PL: predictions for the players residual, written before the build (rule 2) 2026-09-08 16:19:34 -04:00
alex
bb81d3db2d docs: W3 predictions committed before the build -- TShn writer, trade/spy container confirmation, rule-19 control 2026-09-08 16:04:17 -04:00
alex
aabd8a3506 merge lane G3: civilian growth; app CMake list and includes union-resolved into their constructs (rule 22) 2026-09-08 15:54:32 -04:00
alex
ed6602e9ed S11 civilian growth; fix ComputeBudget's interest literals
Reference pair turn1->turn2: 81 leaves closed, 0 regressed (was 78/0).
Pair turn2->turn3: 39 closed, 0 regressed (was 36/0). With
--commit-blocked=T31 --ai-player 1: 83/0 and 41/0.

game/sim/colony: GrowCivilianPopulations models ServerSystem's civilian
growth sub-pass. The whole system's delta is clamped to 20,000,000 -- an
int64 column of the population-type table, built in the executable from
its own literals -- and on both reference pairs that clamp, not the growth
curve and not any carrying capacity, is what decides the value: the
uncapped delta is 7.5x it and the capacity headroom 25x it. So the pass
commits with no tuning table loaded, and says by how much each unmodelled
input would have to be wrong before it mattered.

The one input genuinely off the wire is the per-species civilian capacity
factor. It is handled by running the pass twice, once with the modelled
capacity and once with the system's own wire-known dcs limit, and
committing only when the two agree. Imperial growth is deliberately NOT
committed: it is a no-op on this corpus and would need a capacity the
corpus can bound from below but not from above.

game/sim/economy: both interest rates in ComputeBudget are WIDENED FLOAT
literals, (double)0.01f and (double)0.15f, and are then truncated -- so a
treasury of exactly 50,000 earns 499, not 500. This module used the exact
decimals, which left the human's savings one money high on the first
reference pair and exact on the second. Sixteen hand-computed test
expectations moved by one; they were derived from the model, not measured.
The live ComputeBudget compare (4,437 calls, 0 divergences) did not catch
this because it presented only 20 distinct states and none sat on a
rounding boundary.

game/sim/colony: ShipRepairCost, the last unmodelled input of the output
turn path. The demand is still 0 -- its two design fields are cached stats
the save does not carry -- but the zero is now evidenced rather than
silent: S13 reports the candidate set, and the independent colony keeps a
ten-ship fleet over a colony whose savings close exactly at zero demand.

Gates run as separate commands: clean-room OK, host ctest 49/49, and the
CT111 shim cross-build exit 0 (required: game/sim is compiled into the
shim). The host build and report were also re-run on CT111 and produced
identical numbers.

docs/G3-civilian-growth.md; notes repo
findings/subsystems/population-growth.md.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ARBgSooAfokKUy6wKUKEyZ
2026-09-08 15:52:38 -04:00
alex
5d01c7c7de merge lane EV: P11 event posting; +4/+3 leaves; NO_RESEARCH gate corrected; PostEvent turn is Frame not ModCount 2026-09-08 15:42:58 -04:00
alex
e30d43dd1b P11: post the no-research event into the save's turn bucket
The engine has modelled the event log since lane E, but the standalone never wrote
any of it into the save it produces. This wires the two together for the one event
on the reference pair the standalone can compute, and corrects the condition.

What a turn actually posts, measured over all eleven saves: two events on
turn1 -> turn2 and three on turn2 -> turn3, and only two players in the whole
corpus ever hold an event at all. Order is readable off the ids -- the build pass
posts before the research pass. See docs/EV-events.md section 1.

The condition had two of the original's three tests. The missing one is "no tech
finished on this turn or later", and it is what keeps the event off the turn a tech
lands; zuul-turn23 exercises it. The third input, whether the player holds a target
at the moment of the check, is not on the wire -- three of the four real players
acquire one during the turn, which is AI research selection -- so the operator's
--ai-player roster stands in for it as a stated hypothesis and the phase stays
blocked without it.

No prose in the engine: the record's text is resolved through a caller-supplied
lookup over the operator's own installed string table, and a run without a data
root posts nothing rather than writing a record it cannot fill.

Measured (CT111 host build, real data root), closed and regressed never netted:
  turn1 -> turn2  209 -> 127  closed 82 (+4 this lane), regressed 0
  turn2 -> turn3  108 ->  69  closed 39 (+3 this lane), regressed 0
The posted record agrees with the oracle on all eight of its fields. Controls: with
the roster withheld the phase over-fires and regresses 16 leaves on pair 1; with the
string table withheld it posts nothing and regresses none.

Gates run separately: tools/clean_room_check.sh OK; host ctest 50/50; CT111 shim
cross-build OK (exports 66 names identical to binkw32.dll, staged in
/srv/re-lab/shim/dist-ev); CT111 host ctest 50/50.
2026-09-08 15:39:42 -04:00
alex
cc77de3429 merge lane W2: watchpoints + multiplayer Tier 0 (CMake list and main.cpp union-resolved to keep both instruments; header regenerated) 2026-09-08 15:28:28 -04:00
alex
4065808a05 docs: EV prediction committed before the build -- P11 posts one event, closed 4/3, regressed 0 2026-09-08 15:23:16 -04:00
alex
db99971efb merge lane H probe module (header regenerated, not hand-resolved) 2026-09-08 15:00:42 -04:00
lane-b6
db3909bcd4 docs: B6 measured -- prediction held, closed 0 regressed 0 on both reference pairs
209 -> 158 (closed 51, regressed 0) and 108 -> 87 (closed 21, regressed 0), identical to the
pre-lane baseline, measured on CT111. Falsification hypotheses 1 and 2 refuted by measurement
(three empty BQ frames per reference save, every hbq false, the one command block empty);
hypothesis 3 refuted by the corpus oracle; hypothesis 4 stands as a labelled hypothesis.

construction.h also carries the ship/fleet birth shape as read but NOT implemented, with the
reason stated: the newborn hull copies four cached stat words the engine does not yet compute.
2026-09-08 14:54:21 -04:00
lane-b6
9f8d75d9cb docs: B6 prediction before the build -- the build queue closes nothing on either reference pair
Written before any code (earned rule 2). Both reference saves carry three BQ frames with
zero orders, every hbq false and the only TurnCommands_v5 block empty, so the pass has
nothing to advance; the archived destroyer is created inside the turn by the AI. Includes
the falsification list and names the oracle pair the campaign already owns.
2026-09-08 14:33:16 -04:00