PL: predictions for the players residual, written before the build (rule 2)
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docs/PL-players-residual.md
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docs/PL-players-residual.md
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# PL — decomposing the `/Sim/players` residual
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Every lane so far attacked a named subsystem and reported which leaves fell out. This one runs
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the other way: start from the residual the metric reports, group it by **mechanism**, and say
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what the remaining leaves actually are. Closing leaves is secondary to the decomposition.
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Binary re-measured, not inherited. `sots_turn` built from `main` (`aabd8a3`) in this worktree,
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`tools/standalone_report.py --binary …`:
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| pair | baseline | after | closed | regressed | `/Sim/players` share |
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|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
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| `turn1-state -> turn2-state` | 209 | **128** | 81 | 0 | **54** |
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| `turn2-state -> turn3-state` | 108 | **69** | 39 | 0 | **24** |
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| pair 1, `--commit-blocked=T31 --ai-player 1` | 209 | 126 | 83 | 0 | 52 |
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| pair 2, same | 108 | 67 | 41 | 0 | 22 |
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The stale `status.json` breakdown said `/Sim/players` 55. It is **54** on pair 1 and **24** on
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pair 2.
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---
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## 1. The decomposition
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The first fact, and the one that reframes the rest: **53 of the 54 leaves on pair 1 and 23 of
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the 24 on pair 2 are values our turn writes back unchanged from the input save.** Only one leaf
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in the whole block — player 32's `Sav` — is a number we computed and got wrong. The residual is
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almost entirely *unmodelled*, not *mismodelled*.
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| # | mechanism | pair 1 | pair 2 | rung | blocked on |
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|---|---|---:|---:|---|---|
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| M1 | **AI research orders** — `ResRate`, `ResTNm`, `ResErrRoll`, and the tech-tree state they move (`St[n]`, `TResDone[n]`, `Tbd[n]`) | 12 | 2 | **B** | `game/ai`: the AI picks a target *during* the turn |
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| M2 | **AI ship construction** — `ShipRecs/*`, `Maint`, `FNG/FNGNum`, `NumDes` + the new `Des[…]` frame, `lboid`, and player 32's `Sav`/`PvSav` | 17 | 8 | **B** | lane B6: no build order exists at load |
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| M3 | **Observation records refreshed by the AI's own new design** — `odes`, `owep`, `otch/*/otnL` (phase T34 `RecordObservedDesigns`, stub) | 9 | 1 | **B** | downstream of M2 — the observed design *is* the design the AI just made |
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| M4 | **Events** — `Events/EvNxID` + the bucket frames | 8 | 6 | A (4/3) + B (4/3) | half is the human's `EVENT_NO_RESEARCH`, implemented in P11 and gated only on a **game-data root**; half is the AI's `EVENT_SHIPS_BUILT`/`EVENT_RESEARCH_OVERBUDGET` (M2/M1) |
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| M5 | **Bankruptcy limits** — `BnkEl`, `BnkPr` | 4 | 4 | **A** | `BnkEl`: T31 is implemented and blocked on an operator flag. `BnkPr`: needs one tuning constant from the data files |
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| M6 | **`Status`** — 0 → 4 on four of eight players | 4 | 0 | A? | the **predicate** is not identifiable from this corpus (§4) |
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| M7 | **`PvSav`** — the S00 snapshot, for players M2 does not touch | 0 | 2 | **A** | nothing — closed here |
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| M8 | **A monster faction's one-off design** — player 528 `NumDes` 18→19 + `Des[1712 "Refugee Trade Ship"]` | 2 | 0 | B? | unexplained; a non-empire faction creates a design on turn 1→2 and never again |
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| | **total** | **54** | **24** | | |
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Per-mechanism evidence is in §2–§5.
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### Rung split of the block
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| | pair 1 | pair 2 |
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|---|---:|---:|
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| Rung B (needs the AI's own orders) | 42 | 14 |
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| Rung A, implemented, gated on a **game-data root** (`--data`) | 6 | 5 |
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| Rung A, closable, no blocker | 2 | 5 |
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| not identifiable from the corpus (`Status`) | 4 | 0 |
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**Three quarters of the `/Sim/players` residual is Rung B**, and it all hangs off two AI
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decisions on one player: pick a research target, and queue one destroyer. The Rung-A part is
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small, and most of it is *already written* — it needs the harness to be handed the game's data
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directory, not more reverse engineering.
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---
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## 2. M1 / M2 / M3 — the three faces of one AI turn (Rung B)
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Player 32 "Fane Lao" is the only AI empire that owns colonies, and it does two things in the
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turn that our engine cannot: it assigns research, and it builds a ship. Everything in M1, M2
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and M3 is a consequence.
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Measured, from the state-checksum tree over the three saves:
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* `ResTNm` `''` → `IND_Waldo` and `ResRate` `0.25` → `0.800000011920929` — the AI's own order.
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The two "Singularity" shadow empires do the same (`DRV_PlsFiss`, `BIO_GnMod`), and their
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`ResErrRoll` flips `False` → `True`. `St[106]` 2 → 3 and `TResDone[106]` 0 → 2879 → 5768 then
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follow from the allocation.
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* `PvSav` 50,000 → 38,100 and again 92,651 → 80,751: **11,900 leaves the treasury before the
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first spine phase on both turns.** That is lane B6's queue-time deduction of a build order the
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input file does not contain, and it is why player 32's `PvSav` does not close in §5.
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* The new design is `Des[18 "Honor Lance"]`, and the observation records name it exactly:
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`odes/.[1]` holds `odid=18, opid=32` — **the AI observes its own new design**. `owep/.[1]` is
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`bal_gauss`, that design's weapon, and the three `otch` entries whose `otnL` moves from 1 to 2
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are `DRV_Fissn`, `WEP_GsDrvr`, `DRV_Hyper` — that design's technologies. So T34
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`RecordObservedDesigns` is not an intel pass over enemy fleets at all on this workload; it is
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a self-registration triggered by design creation.
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* On pair 2 the same design is built again (`srb[0]` 1→2, another `EVENT_SHIPS_BUILT`), and this
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time `odes/.[1]/otnL` moves 2→3 while the `otch` entries stay at 2. **`odes` is re-stamped on
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build; `otch` is re-stamped on design creation.** One workload, two different refresh rules —
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worth recording before anyone models T34 from the pair-1 numbers alone.
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None of this is closable without `game/ai`. It is listed here so the next lane does not
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re-derive it: **42 of the 54 leaves on pair 1 are one AI player's research pick and one
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destroyer.**
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## 3. M4 — events
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The corpus posts exactly two events on pair 1 and three on pair 2, and the split is clean:
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| player | event | rung |
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|---|---|---|
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| 0 (human) | `EVENT_NO_RESEARCH`, every turn | **A** — P11 implements it; blocked on the string table |
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| 1 (AI) | `EVENT_SHIPS_BUILT` (both turns), `EVENT_RESEARCH_OVERBUDGET` (turn 3) | B — M2 and M1 |
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P11's own note is precise about it: *"4 event(s) NOT posted: no string table."* Lane EV measured
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`--commit-blocked=P11 --data ROOT --ai-player 1 --ai-player 2 --ai-player 3` at **4 closed on
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pair 1, 3 on pair 2, 0 regressed**. Those leaves are in today's residual only because
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`tools/standalone_report.py` invokes the binary with no `--data` root.
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## 4. M6 — `Status`, and why it is not identifiable here
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`Status` goes 0 → 4 on turn 1→2 for players 16, 32, 496 and 512, and stays 0 for 528, 544, 560
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and 576. It then stays 4 on turn 2→3, which is why the leaf does not appear in pair 2's residual
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at all.
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The trouble is that the two sets are **perfectly correlated with species**: the four that take
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the 4 are species 0 and 2, the four that do not are all species 4. Sweeping every scalar field
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of the player record on `turn1-state`, **fourteen** of them split the roster exactly the same
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way — `ReqCL`, `AMine`, `CnTrd`, `CnVItl`, `cdp`, `hadvs`, `harcc`, `hgs`, `PvMA`, `CstE`,
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`CstR`, `CstT`, `MinRate`, `MaxOH`, `NPTrk`, `PrGtTrf`, `TerraMod`, `pddm` — eighteen of them.
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Any one of them "fits". Only two corpus saves carry a non-zero `Status` at all, so there is one observation of one
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transition on one roster: **any predicate chosen here is a one-bit fit on eight correlated
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players, which is exactly the shape rule 23 was written for.**
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`ReqCL` is the most plausible on name and on meaning — `Status = 4` is written by
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`MarkPlayerTurnEnded` from the End-Turn submission paths (W2), and `ReqCL` reads as "a client
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must submit for this player" — but it is a hypothesis with a workload attached, not a finding.
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**The probe that settles it** (rule 18, rule 20): an entry probe on the writer W2 located at
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`OnMessage+0xa15`, capturing the player index on every call for one turn. It names the set
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directly and costs one VM session. Instrument the *entry*, not the count.
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## 5. What this lane changed
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See the prediction block below; measured results follow it.
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---
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## 6. Predictions, written before the build (rule 2)
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### PL-1 — `PvSav` is S00's snapshot of `Sav`
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`PvSav(turn N+1) == Sav(turn N)` holds exactly for players 16 and 576 across all three saves
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(50,000 → 50,000 → 289,688 against `Sav` 50,000 → 289,688 → 532,369; and 0 → 0 → 98,871 against
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`Sav` 0 → 98,871 → 198,730). For player 32 it is `Sav(turn N) − 11,900`, the M2 deduction.
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**Predicted:** pair 1 — 0 closed, 0 regressed (every player's `Sav` already equals its `PvSav`
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in `turn1-state`, so the snapshot is a no-op there). Pair 2 — **2 closed** (`Player[16]/PvSav`,
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`Player[576]/PvSav`), **0 regressed**; player 32 stays open, short by exactly 11,900.
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**Falsification.** If the snapshot were taken later than S00 — say after P02 writes savings —
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player 16's `turn3` `PvSav` would be its *turn 3* `Sav` (532,369), not its turn 2 `Sav`
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(289,688). It is 289,688. If the snapshot were per-player conditional, some player other than 32
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would show an offset; none does. If it regresses anything, the symptom is a player whose
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`PvSav` and `Sav` differ in the input for a reason that is not M2 — there is none in the corpus,
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so a regression here means the field is not a snapshot at all.
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### PL-2 — T31's difficulty column is recoverable from the input save
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T31 is blocked on `ServerPlayer+0xf9`, the per-player "is AI" flag, which the save does not
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carry and which is worth ×1.1 on that player's max income. The operator supplies it with
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`--ai-player N`.
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But the input save **already carries the answer**: its `BnkEl` was written by the original at
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the end of the previous turn from the colony state the save holds. Computing `BnkEl` from that
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state under both columns and comparing against the stored value identifies the column — for
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every player whose max income is non-zero, since the two columns differ by 10%, far more than
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one truncation.
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**Predicted:** on `turn1-state`, the column resolves to non-AI for player 0 and AI for player 1;
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it is *ambiguous* (both columns give `BnkEl = 0`) for the five players that own nothing, where
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the value is 0 either way. Player 7's column is unknown before measuring. With the column
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identified from the save and `BnkEl` committed, the phase closes **2 leaves per pair, 0
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regressed** — the same as `--commit-blocked=T31 --ai-player 1` measures today, but with no
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operator input.
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**Falsification.** (a) If the AI flag does more than select a ×1.1 income column, the identified
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column will still reproduce the *stored* value while the *post-turn* value diverges; symptom —
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`BnkEl` closes on pair 1 and regresses on pair 2, or the other way round. (b) Player 576's
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`BnkEl` is **constant** at −665,806 across all three saves although its `Sav` grows; if its
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column is identified and its post-turn max income has moved, committing regresses that leaf.
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Symptom — 2 closed and 1 regressed. (c) If the pre-turn computation reproduces *neither*
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column's value for a player, the phase must abstain for that player, and the leaf stays
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pass-through — no regression, but no close either.
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### PL-3 — the protection factor is a widened float (rule 23, read the four bytes)
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`ComputeBankruptcyLimits` multiplies `BANKRUPTCY_PROTECTION_LIMIT_FACTOR` in as a `double`. The
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image does not. In `ServerPlayer::UpdateBankruptcyLimits` the two constants are loaded by
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**different opcodes**, and that is the whole point:
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```
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DB 45 FC fild dword [ebp-4] ; maxIncome, still on the stack afterwards
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DD 05 30 EC A2 00 fld qword [0x00a2ec30] ; DD /0 = m64fp -- a DOUBLE in .rdata
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D8 F9 fdivr st(0), st(1) ; maxIncome / that double
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E8 … call ftol ; -> BnkEl, then the -2e9 clamp
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8B 0D DC DF AE 00 mov ecx, [0x00aedfdc] ; the tuning pointer slot
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D8 09 fmul dword [ecx] ; D8 /1 = m32fp -- a FLOAT32
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E8 … call ftol
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F7 D8 neg eax ; -> BnkPr
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```
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The `.rdata` double at `0x00a2ec30` reads `00 00 00 40 33 33 C3 BF` = **−0.15000000596046448**,
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i.e. `(double)(float)-0.15` — already handled. The protection factor is the other case: it is
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read `dword ptr`, so whatever decimal the data file carries is **narrowed to float32 before the
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multiply**, and our `double` multiply is wrong at every boundary.
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**Predicted:** 0 leaves move on this corpus — all seven non-zero `BnkPr` records invert to a max
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income where `3.3` and `(double)3.3f` truncate to the same integer. Three hand-written test
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expectations move by one or twenty (`-3300 → -3299`, `-330 → -329`,
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`-1320000000 → -1319999980`). The two constants disagree on roughly **1.1% of max-income values
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at the corpus's empire size**, rising with empire size, so this is a fix the corpus cannot see —
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report it as thin coverage, not as verified.
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**Falsification.** If the factor were a `double` in the image the opcode would be `DC /1`, not
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`D8 /1`. If some *other* call site multiplies the same global as a qword, the storage is a
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double and this is wrong; the check is a cross-reference sweep on `0x00aedfdc`.
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