9f8d75d9cb
Written before any code (earned rule 2). Both reference saves carry three BQ frames with zero orders, every hbq false and the only TurnCommands_v5 block empty, so the pass has nothing to advance; the archived destroyer is created inside the turn by the AI. Includes the falsification list and names the oracle pair the campaign already owns.
71 lines
4.4 KiB
Markdown
71 lines
4.4 KiB
Markdown
# B6 — ship construction: the build queue, and where the missing destroyer actually comes from
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Lane B6. Branch `wip/build` off `main` `0f1c007`.
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This file was written and committed **before** the code (earned rule 2). Section 1 is the
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prediction as first written; section 2 is the falsification list; sections 3 onward are filled
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in after the measurement and correct section 1 in place where it was wrong.
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---
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## 1. Prediction, written before the build
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The brief's target is `hist[*]/stats[*]/shpt[0]` on both reference pairs — the archived ship
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census is one destroyer higher than ours, and lane E2 concluded that no phase we run builds a
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ship. That conclusion is right. The inference drawn from it — that `S11`'s build-queue
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sub-pass is what closes it — is **wrong**, and this lane predicts the pass closes **nothing**:
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> **Both reference pairs: closed 0, regressed 0.**
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>
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> `turn1-state.sav` and `turn2-state.sav` each carry exactly **three** `BQ` frames (one per
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> owned system: players 16, 32 and 576), and **every one of them holds zero orders**. Every
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> `hbq` in both files is `false`, so there is no ship-borne `BQ2` queue either. The only
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> `TurnCommands_v5` block belongs to player 16 and is the byte-identical empty one. So at the
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> moment the standalone loads either save, **the whole game contains no build order at all**,
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> and a faithful build-queue pass has nothing to advance.
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>
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> The destroyer the archive counts is created *inside* the turn: on the reference pair the
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> owner is player 32 ("Fane Lao"), an AI, and the same turn shows `NumDes` 5 → 6 (a design the
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> AI designed during the turn), `FNG/FNGNum` 0 → 1 (a fleet named), `Maint` 0 → 500,
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> `ShipRecs/srb[0]` 0 → 1 and a new `ShipRecs` design record, with `NMnx` 106 → 109 — three
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> ids issued in the order design(107), ship(108), fleet(109). The order that fed the queue was
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> issued by the AI and consumed in the same turn.
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>
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> **`shpt[0]` is blocked on AI order generation (`game/ai`, Rung B), not on S11.** This lane
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> moves the blocker; it does not close the leaf.
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What this lane does deliver, and what it is worth:
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* the build-queue advance read byte for byte from `Game::BuildQueue::ProcessTurn`
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(`0x00890d50`, real end `0x00891240` — Ghidra says 1230 bytes, the body runs 1264), which
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**independently confirms** lane B4's `sim::ProcessBuildQueue` and finds **one divergence**
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in it (§4);
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* the `ShipRecords` update the pass performs, whose per-class counter has **exactly one
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writer in the whole image**;
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* the pass wired into the standalone's S11 as its own reported sub-pass;
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* a real oracle for the pass that the campaign already owns and had not noticed:
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`zuul-turn16-noderoute.sav` → `zuul-turn17-rollpending.sav` is a genuine consecutive-turn
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pair (frames 16 and 17) in which **six orders complete and one is partially advanced**
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across two systems (§5).
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## 2. How this prediction could be wrong, and the symptom of each way
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1. **A build order exists somewhere I did not look.** The reader types unknown regions as
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`raw`; a queue hidden inside one would not show up in a tag scan. *Symptom:* the standalone
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reports a non-zero order count on a reference pair, and `closed` is not 0.
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2. **The order is created before the spine rather than during it.** If the AI's orders were
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applied at load time by something the standalone also runs, the queue would be non-empty by
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S11 and the pass would build. *Symptom:* same as (1). (The measured `PvSav` says otherwise:
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Fane Lao's savings are 50,000 in the input file and the previous-turn snapshot in the output
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file is 38,100, so 11,900 left the treasury *between the save and phase 0* — the queue-time
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deduction of a build order the file does not contain.)
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3. **The FIFO + stop-at-the-first-short-order model is wrong.** *Symptom:* on the
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`zuul-turn16 → zuul-turn17` pair there is **no** single non-negative integer point total per
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system that turns the observed before-queue into the observed after-queue. This is a real
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test: a per-order point budget, a non-FIFO order, or a "skip and continue" rule instead of
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"stop" each fail it.
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4. **The `points <= 0` gate on the removal sweep is wrong.** Unobservable in this corpus
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(§4) and therefore carried as a labelled hypothesis, not a result.
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5. **`shpt` is not the fleet walk.** If the census leaf were fed by `ShipRecs` rather than by
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walking fleets, the fix would be different. Lane E2 already falsifies this: the fleet walk
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reproduces 480/480 archived census leaves.
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