7dcc66bc66
Replace mode was tried live on a turn that actually completes a tech, with a two-process hooks=off oracle established first on that exact (save, procedure, route). Verdict: game/sim/research stays compared. What displaced: all 13 tech-tree leaves the turn moves -- 2 from the pass itself and 11 from the SetResearched cascade -- produced by our code in live game memory, with the original's ProcessResearch never executing. What did not: 16 leaves, every one written by ServerPlayer::OnTechResearched. Five player tech-effect fields (OutMod, ConMod[0..2], ResTNm), one ObservedTech element, two event records plus EvNxID, and five derived leaves behind them. Also: ref-turn2 + one End Turn does NOT complete a tech, so every research oracle before this one was taken on a quiet turn; and a config that names all 27 registered hooks off and passes check_shim_configs.py still installs six detours, because the M0 stub and the FPU module's four sampling detours have no hook. key.
95 lines
6.3 KiB
Markdown
95 lines
6.3 KiB
Markdown
# Certified pairs — what has actually been shown to reproduce, and under what procedure
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`determinism-hashes.txt` next to this file is a **file-hash inventory**: it says what a byte string
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hashed to. It cannot say what was *done* to produce it, and after 2026-09-09 that distinction is
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load-bearing. Two findings made it so:
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- **A pair certifies a procedure, not a state** (rule 26(c)). A control that agrees means "no exposed
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decision was reached on these turns", never "this state is deterministic".
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- **The route is part of the procedure.** The same turn runs one way by *continuation* and another way
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after a *load*, **both reproducibly** — because a `Colonize` task alive in the AI agent by
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continuation is simply absent after a load (lane BS). A hash without its route is not a claim.
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So a pair is `(input save, procedure, route, outputs, process count, masks)`. Anything missing one of
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those columns is an observation, not a certification.
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## Certified
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| input | procedure | route | `(Autosave EndTurn)` | `(Autosave)` | processes | evidence |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---:|---|
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| `ref-turn2.sav` `ab4ac2d7…` | one End Turn | load | `bb4fd9ac…` | `978041ac…` | 5 + 1 | runs A–E; reproduced by lane H after everything changed |
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| `ar-turn37-816raiders.sav` `b6f4e05f…` | End Turn, **auto-resolve peacefully**, End Turn | load | `15b99255…` | `7a8b3d5e…` | **4** | lane AR ×3 `hooks=off`, lane BS ×1 instrumented |
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| `ar-oracle-A-pre.sav` `15b99255…` | one End Turn | **load** | `33e30092…` | `4c356f59…` | **3** | lane BQ ×2 `hooks=off`, lane BS ×1 instrumented |
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| `turn3-state.sav` `978041ac…` | one End Turn | **load** | `e00eed0c…` | `79df5047…` | **3** | lane CR ×2 `hooks=off`, ×1 compare-instrumented |
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**The second and third rows are the same lineage and they do not agree with each other.** Row 2's
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second turn reached by continuation gives `7a8b3d5e…`; the identical turn reached by *loading* row 2's
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own intermediate save gives `4c356f59…`. Both are certified; neither is wrong. This is the load
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boundary, and it is why the route column exists.
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**Row 3 is the standalone's first trade-raid pair** — one End Turn, no encounter, four raid rolls at
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one word each.
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**Row 4 is the first pair on a turn that completes a research tech** (lane CR, 2026-09-09).
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`turn3-state.sav` is the *output* of row 1 — the `(Autosave).sav` that `ref-turn2` + one End Turn
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produces — and the turn it starts is the one where `Player[32 "Fane Lao"]` completes tech 144
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`IND_Waldo` and the cascade unlocks three nodes. Row 1's own turn does **not** complete anything
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(`unlock-b3-t1.md`: `0 undeclared write(s) in 0 call(s)`), so every research oracle before this row
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was taken on a turn where the completion path did not run. Exposure at entry: none of the three
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players with an AI client (32, 496, 512) has `ResTNm == ''`; `NumDes` does not move; two ships
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complete and join existing fleets; the four factions at 528–576 carry the empty-`ResTNm` signature
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inertly (`Status 0`, no client). Two ships completing *and* three fleets changing did **not** expose
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this turn — a reminder that 26(c) is a screen and the control is the decision.
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Masks for row 4, measured against the input: **exactly `/Summary/Checksum` and `Player.Status 4 → 0`
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on the four live players. No `/CD[1]/NPrvVa` term** — this state's `CD[1]` diplomacy block is
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early-game and the leaf does not move, so the documented `--mask resave` rule holds here in its
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original form.
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### Masks that must be on the line
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- `Player.Status` (4 → 0 on load) and the derived `Summary.Checksum`.
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- **`/CD[1]/NPrvVa`, which advances by exactly +5.00 across a load** and falls on a combat turn. The
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documented `--mask resave` rule said "nothing else varies"; that was true of early-game saves with
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an empty `CD[1]` diplomacy block and **false on these**. Lane BQ's probe was unsatisfiable on that
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leaf alone, before any AI behaviour entered the question.
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- Row 3's `(Autosave EndTurn)` is a **resave** of `ar-oracle-A-pre.sav` and differs from it on that
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one leaf.
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## Explicitly NOT certified
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| input | procedure | route | outcome set | why |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| `ad-turn27-two-raiders.sav` `1c8baa27…` | one End Turn | load | **2**: `e913ff41…` ×3, `724528ff…` ×2 | the fleet-visit-order residue |
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Five processes across three instrument configurations, **no third file**, both members reproduced at
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least twice. The two outputs are `bp-pinA-turn28.sav` and `bp-pinB-turn28.sav`, and lane BU showed
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the difference **is** the two orderings of two heap pointers: the assignment pass walks a container
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keyed on `fleet->Location`, and under LFH randomisation two same-size allocations land in either
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relative order.
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That is not a defect to fix and not a pair to keep hunting for. It is a **two-member outcome set**,
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which is what C-set's shape needs, and `state_checksum --relabel-new-ids` compares across it:
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`IDENTICAL modulo π = {1970↔1986}`. **The unpinned pair on the same save is refused by that tool and
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still reports 94 leaves**, so the relabelling cannot launder a real divergence.
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Do not add a row here on the strength of one agreeing run. Three processes on `as-turn15` produced
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the same bytes on a turn the predicate says is *exposed*, and a fourth produced different ones —
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agreement on a single pair proves nothing (lane AP).
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## Standing rules for adding a row
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1. **Two fresh processes minimum**, and say how many.
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2. **Run the control before reading anything from an instrumented run**, so that if it is a single
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outcome the 1/k coincidence caveat does not apply (lane AR).
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3. **Never extend a certified pair by a turn** without its own agreement. Row 2's state enters the
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following turn with `ResTNm == ''` and is *predicted* to vary.
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4. **Record the exposure facts next to the hashes**: each AI player's pre-turn `ResTNm`, `NumDes`,
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`NumOwn`, whether ships completed, **and which players actually have an AI client** — a save with
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seven non-human players builds three clients, and the other four carry the signature inertly.
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5. **When the instrument cannot be removed**, pin to a natural run's observed values and require
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byte-identity with it first (rule 26(d)). That agreement is both the pin's control and a noise
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mask.
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Hashes here are recorded to 8 bytes for readability; the full values are in `determinism-hashes.txt`
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and in each lane's findings file.
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