Three phases, one input. A star system carries four per-player masks and three of
them agree on nearly every system of every save the corpus holds, so a model built
on the wrong one looks right until it does not. The gate is the DERIVED
active-presence mask -- fleet-here OR gate-here OR owner, recomputed on every
arrival and departure -- not the sticky one and not the explored one.
S29 SystemObservedStamp the system's own last-observed turn (whole function)
T17 RebuildPlayerViewTree the per-(system, player) observation record: who saw
the system, on what turn, and what encounter was there
T21 UpdateSurveyAndStats the explored sweep: seen this turn implies surveyed
game/sim/visibility is pure and knows nothing about save shapes; app/visibility_phase
wires it to them. The mask is READ FROM THE SAVE and never rebuilt: neither reference
pair moves a mask leaf, so the loaded value is the value these phases would see, and
rebuilding it from an unmodelled movement pass would be a change with no evidence.
Measured, closed and regressed reported separately and never netted:
turn1-state -> turn2-state 209 -> 158 closed 51, regressed 0
turn2-state -> turn3-state 108 -> 87 closed 21, regressed 0
of which this lane closed 46 and 16 (the rest were already closed at main). The 46
are the brief's 32-leaf target in full -- 8 record counts, 8 player ids, 8 turn
stamps, 8 encounter ids -- plus 8 system stamps and 6 explored masks.
Three further pairs the model was never fitted to, all zero regressions:
human-turn2 -> human-turn3 353 -> 311 closed 42 (a different game, 21 systems)
zuul15 -> zuul16 276 -> 264 closed 12
zuul16 -> zuul17 341 -> 329 closed 12
The corpus's one discriminating row is a host test rather than a comment: a system
whose last visiting fleet has gone carries the sticky and explored bits set, the
active bit clear, and a stamp frozen a turn behind. The test asserts the freeze AND
asserts what the wrong gate would have produced, so a future edit that swaps the
mask fails loudly instead of quietly agreeing with five saves.
Labelled hypothesis, with the workload named in the header: the encounter id is
recovered from the encounter fleet at the system, because the field the original
reads is set once at map generation and is not on the wire. It agrees on all six
encounter fleets in the corpus and no save can separate it -- none kills an
encounter while leaving its system visible.
Not written, deliberately: the colony-ownership stamp that moves beside these.
Its gate is demonstrably NOT the active mask (one system in the corpus has a zero
mask and moves it anyway), the formula is not held, so it is reported, not written.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ARBgSooAfokKUy6wKUKEyZ
The spine's fourth phase, read byte-for-byte and implemented:
almem[i] = (1 << i) | (ALid != -1 ? AL : 0)
with i the player's POSITION IN THE PLAYER VECTOR, not its index field. Both
inputs are on the wire and so is the output, through the turn-record archive,
so the phase is checkable against bytes the original wrote:
app_turn_record: 11 saves, 80 player-records, 560 fields, 0 mismatches
(was 480 fields over six fields; almem is the seventh)
The eight zero masks of the corpus's earliest archived turn are PREDICTED, not
excluded: the archiving phase also runs on load, and the load path does not run
the spine. BuildTurnRecord takes spineRan and models it, so all 80 records are
compared.
Three parts of the rule the corpus cannot separate -- the bit index, the OR,
and the ALid guard -- are pinned in app_alliance with the separating inputs no
save provides, and app_turn_record prints that it could not separate them.
Divergence, closed and regressed reported separately:
turn1->turn2 default 209 -> 204 closed 5, regressed 0
turn1->turn2 --commit-blocked 209 -> 189 closed 29, regressed 9 (was 17)
turn2->turn3 default 108 -> 103 closed 5, regressed 0
turn2->turn3 --commit-blocked 108 -> 106 closed 13, regressed 11 (was 19)
T36 stays blocked: nine leaves would still be wrong (inc x3, sav x3 behind the
budget; three census leaves behind the design catalogue). It now closes all 24
turnstats leaves on the reference pair, so it becomes a clean +24 once those
two land.
Prediction and falsification committed first in 49ae628.
Gates run separately: clean-room OK; host ctest 43/43. No src/shim touched.
The trade-raid block is 16 of a measured turn's 18-22 generator words and it is the
first thing the standalone can model as a COUNT rather than as a formula: two chance
rolls per entry of the player vector, neither site inside a back edge, both
probabilities strictly inside (0,1) so neither early-out fires. src/app/trade_raid
implements it with the word cost reported rather than assumed, so a tuning table that
pushes an odds value to 0 or 1 removes the draw and the ledger says so.
Against lane Z's two calibrated oracle pairs the standalone now consumes 16 words and
lands 4 and 2 short, which is exactly the per-call-site ledger's split for those two
turns. It does NOT match the oracle's state, and the report says which sites are
missing instead of netting them off the total.
The tail's last phase -- the per-player turn record -- is modelled for the six fields
that are recoverable from the wire, and self-checked every run against the record the
input save already carries for its own turn: 480 fields over 80 player-records across
the corpus, 0 mismatches. It is not committed. Under --commit-blocked it closes 24
container-shaped divergences on the reference pair and opens 17 leaf-shaped ones, all
of them in the five fields the model does not hold, so the block is a measurement now
rather than an argument.
phases 14/44 of the two turn drivers (8 committed), 3/37 of the tail.
divergence unchanged: 209->204 and 108->103, 5 closed / 0 regressed on both.
`sots_turn` loads a save through the engine's own reader, walks the published
phase order of all three turn drivers, runs what we hold, prints what we do
not, and writes the result back through the engine's own writer.
The phase catalog carries all 32 + 12 + 37 phases whether or not they are
implemented, so an unimplemented phase is a named no-op that appears in the run
log rather than a silent absence. 14 of the 44 turn-driver phases are modelled,
7 commit anything, 2 of the 37 tail phases are modelled.
Modelled but NOT committed is a first-class state. A phase whose formula we hold
and whose inputs we do not is evaluated, reported, and left unwritten unless
--commit-blocked is passed. That distinction was earned: committing phase 31's
player-status restore regressed two leaves that had agreed with the oracle
before the turn, because the phase writes 1 and the file carries 4.
Measured against the game's own post-turn saves, leaves localised by
state_checksum.py with coverage proved by re-serialisation:
turn1-state -> turn2-state 209 -> 204 diverging, closed 5, regressed 0
turn2-state -> turn3-state 108 -> 103 diverging, closed 5, regressed 0
Two tests: app_catalog (the tables stay complete and nothing claims to be
verified against a live game) and app_turn (11 saves driven; an untouched load
re-serialises byte-identically, a turn leaves the file re-readable, and no
blocked or stub phase writes anything). Skips cleanly without SOTS_SAVES_DIR.
ctest 38/38, clean-room OK. src/shim untouched. docs/S-standalone.md has the
full gap list.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01ARBgSooAfokKUy6wKUKEyZ
