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Author SHA1 Message Date
alex
e30d43dd1b P11: post the no-research event into the save's turn bucket
The engine has modelled the event log since lane E, but the standalone never wrote
any of it into the save it produces. This wires the two together for the one event
on the reference pair the standalone can compute, and corrects the condition.

What a turn actually posts, measured over all eleven saves: two events on
turn1 -> turn2 and three on turn2 -> turn3, and only two players in the whole
corpus ever hold an event at all. Order is readable off the ids -- the build pass
posts before the research pass. See docs/EV-events.md section 1.

The condition had two of the original's three tests. The missing one is "no tech
finished on this turn or later", and it is what keeps the event off the turn a tech
lands; zuul-turn23 exercises it. The third input, whether the player holds a target
at the moment of the check, is not on the wire -- three of the four real players
acquire one during the turn, which is AI research selection -- so the operator's
--ai-player roster stands in for it as a stated hypothesis and the phase stays
blocked without it.

No prose in the engine: the record's text is resolved through a caller-supplied
lookup over the operator's own installed string table, and a run without a data
root posts nothing rather than writing a record it cannot fill.

Measured (CT111 host build, real data root), closed and regressed never netted:
  turn1 -> turn2  209 -> 127  closed 82 (+4 this lane), regressed 0
  turn2 -> turn3  108 ->  69  closed 39 (+3 this lane), regressed 0
The posted record agrees with the oracle on all eight of its fields. Controls: with
the roster withheld the phase over-fires and regresses 16 leaves on pair 1; with the
string table withheld it posts nothing and regresses none.

Gates run separately: tools/clean_room_check.sh OK; host ctest 50/50; CT111 shim
cross-build OK (exports 66 names identical to binkw32.dll, staged in
/srv/re-lab/shim/dist-ev); CT111 host ctest 50/50.
2026-09-08 15:39:42 -04:00
alex
4065808a05 docs: EV prediction committed before the build -- P11 posts one event, closed 4/3, regressed 0 2026-09-08 15:23:16 -04:00