350 lines
21 KiB
Markdown
350 lines
21 KiB
Markdown
# Macro palette: the smoke run
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Measured 2026-09-16 on the WSL development box for `docs/design/macros.md` section 7.
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**This is not the gate.** Section 7 asks for 6 brain hours per arm from the same archived
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checkpoint, three runs, with palette mode shipping as the default only if it reaches rung 6 or
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higher in fewer brain hours in 3 of 3. This is **one** run of **one** brain hour per arm from a
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**fresh boot**, because there is no live checkpoint on this box: the release box's durable state
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has not been pulled here, and `FLY_MACRO_CHECKPOINT` was therefore unset. It establishes that the
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wiring works and what it costs; it decides nothing.
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## What was run
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`services/flysim/crates/flysim/examples/palette_bench.rs` at `feat/macros-simloop`, on the pinned
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Pokémon Red cartridge, unthrottled, both arms side by side with 4 sweep threads each.
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```sh
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FLY_ROM=".../Pokemon Red (U) [S][BF].gb" FLY_MACRO_BRAIN=data/fafb-v783 \
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FLY_MACRO_HOURS=1 FLY_MACRO_DIGEST=1 FLY_MACRO_THREADS=4 \
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cargo run --release -p flysim --example palette_bench
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```
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Both arms are the sim loop's own frame order (`flysim::frame::LegacyFrame` since 2026-09-23;
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before that `NeuralAgent::tick`'s, one frame behind the stream) over the real connectome (`data/fafb-v783`), the real
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Game Boy readout preset with nothing overridden, the real Pokémon adapter paying the real reward
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catalog, and the real ratchet on the adapter's own recovery policy. The only difference between
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them is `flysim::macros::MacroLayer`, built from the configuration the way `Sim::boot` builds it,
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so the raw arm has no layer rather than a disabled one.
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The harness drove the cartridge intro with scripted presses and both arms started from that one
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identical playable frame in Red's bedroom (map 38) with a freshly warmed-up brain. The fly's own
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readout was not asked to sit through the naming screens, which is also why this run says nothing
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about palette mode on the title screen — that path is raw by design and is covered by
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`tests/integration.rs` instead.
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## Both arms, 1 brain hour each
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| measure | raw | palette |
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| --- | ---: | ---: |
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| brain hours | 1.00 | 1.00 |
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| frames | 215,020 | 215,020 |
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| wall seconds | 1,449 | 1,449 |
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| realtime factor | 2.48x | 2.48x |
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| rung reached | **5** (GOT A STARTER) | **4** (OAK'S LAB) |
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| reward total | 9.200 | 6.650 |
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| reward per brain hour | **9.200** | **6.650** |
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| new locations | 141 | **244** |
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| recoveries | 0 | 0 |
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| frames with nothing pressed | 0 (0%) | 134,446 (63%) |
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| frames a macro owned the buttons | — | 118,500 (55%) |
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| macros started | 0 | 3,355 |
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| trajectory digest | `a25dbaef740223f0` | `0358f5d151216668` |
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Brain hours at each rung, from the shared starting frame:
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| rung | label | raw | palette |
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| ---: | --- | ---: | ---: |
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| 0 | BOOT | 0.000 | 0.000 |
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| 1 | BEDROOM | 0.000 | 0.000 |
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| 2 | DOWNSTAIRS | 0.008 | **0.001** |
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| 3 | PALLET TOWN | 0.148 | **0.013** |
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| 4 | OAK'S LAB | **0.156** | 0.249 |
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| 5 | GOT A STARTER | **0.185** | — |
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Macro outcomes over the palette hour: **3,355 started, 3,334 done, 21 blocked, 0 timeout, 0
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refused.** Payouts by kind — raw: boundary 11, exploration 16, map 3, milestone 5, species 4;
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palette: boundary 32, exploration 29, map 4, milestone 2. Frames by scene in the palette arm:
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overworld 66%, dialog 15%, menu 13%, unknown 6%.
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## What this establishes
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- **The wiring works end to end.** 3,355 macros ran in an hour and 99.4% of them finished on their
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own script rather than being cut off. Nothing timed out, and nothing was refused: the palette's
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preconditions and the executor's route search agreed on every one of 3,355 starts, which is the
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path that was most likely to be noisy in production.
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- **It costs nothing measurable in throughput.** Both arms stepped 215,020 frames in the same
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1,449 s at 2.48x realtime, on the same box at the same time. Scene detection and
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`Palette::for_scene` run every frame in palette mode, and at this resolution they do not show up
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against a 139,255-neuron brain step. That is the number the release box cares about, since it has
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to hold 1.0x.
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- **Palette mode leaves a room much faster and then stalls.** Out of the bedroom in 0.001 brain
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hours against 0.008, and out of the house into Pallet Town in 0.013 against 0.148 — an order of
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magnitude, and exactly what `GO EXIT` is for. It then took longer to reach Oak's lab (0.249
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against 0.156) and never got the starter inside the hour, while covering nearly twice as much
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ground (244 new locations against 141).
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- **And it earned less.** 6.65 reward per brain hour against 9.20. The two arms earn from different
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rules: palette doubled the `boundary` and `exploration` payouts (32 and 29 against 11 and 16)
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and lost the `milestone` and `species` ones, which are the large values. Covering ground is not
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the same as climbing, and this hour is the clearest statement of that difference so far.
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## What it does not establish
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- Nothing about the gate. One run, one seed, one brain hour, a fresh boot rather than an archived
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checkpoint, and palette mode came out **behind** on the rung that matters. Section 7's bar is
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rung 6 in fewer brain hours in 3 of 3 runs; this is not evidence for or against that, because an
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hour from a fresh brain is the noisiest part of a run — a single early dialogue box the fly
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answers differently moves both arms by more than the gap between them.
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- Nothing about the fly. It measures what a scene-appropriate action palette does to a run.
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- Nothing about a long run. The reward attribution the design is actually for — "the interval
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between a macro decision and its payout is now one macro long" — is a learning effect, and an
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hour with 0 recoveries is not long enough to see one.
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## Plan mode, one brain hour, 2026-09-16
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The third arm (`docs/design/macros.md` section 9, `FLY_MACRO_ARMS=plan`), on the same box, the
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same fresh boot and the **same seed** as smoke run 1, so the row below sits beside the two above.
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One arm rather than three: the raw and palette numbers are the ones already recorded, and
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re-running them would have measured the box's load rather than the mode. Re-run after section
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9.1's `TALK` amendment; the pre-amendment run is the "what it does not establish" note below.
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```sh
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FLY_ROM=".../Pokemon Red (U) [S][BF].gb" FLY_MACRO_BRAIN=data/fafb-v783 \
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FLY_MACRO_HOURS=1 FLY_MACRO_DIGEST=1 FLY_MACRO_THREADS=4 FLY_MACRO_SEED=20260916 \
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FLY_MACRO_ARMS=plan cargo run --release -p flysim --example palette_bench
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```
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| measure | raw | palette | **plan** |
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| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
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| brain hours | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
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| frames | 215,020 | 215,020 | 215,020 |
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| wall seconds | 1,449 | 1,449 | 1,033 |
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| realtime factor | 2.48x | 2.48x | 3.49x |
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| rung reached | **5** (GOT A STARTER) | **4** (OAK'S LAB) | **4** (OAK'S LAB) |
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| reward total | 9.200 | 6.650 | 4.650 |
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| reward per brain hour | **9.200** | 6.650 | 4.650 |
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| new locations | 141 | **244** | 63 |
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| recoveries | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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| frames with nothing pressed | 0 (0%) | 134,446 (63%) | 157,519 (73%) |
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| frames a macro owned the buttons | — | 118,500 (55%) | 90,989 (42%) |
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| macros started | 0 | 3,355 | 3,403 |
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| trajectory digest | `a25dbaef740223f0` | `0358f5d151216668` | `61f77acca870656e` |
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Brain hours at each rung, from the shared starting frame:
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| rung | label | raw | palette | **plan** |
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| ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
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| 0 | BOOT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
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| 1 | BEDROOM | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
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| 2 | DOWNSTAIRS | 0.008 | 0.001 | **0.001** |
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| 3 | PALLET TOWN | 0.148 | 0.013 | **0.003** |
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| 4 | OAK'S LAB | 0.156 | 0.249 | **0.005** |
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| 5 | GOT A STARTER | **0.185** | — | — |
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Macro outcomes over the plan hour: **3,403 started, 3,401 done, 2 blocked, 0 timeout, 0 refused.**
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Payouts by kind — boundary 22, exploration 6, map 4, milestone 2. Frames by scene: overworld 65%,
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dialog 22%, unknown 12%. Silent frames by cause: decision cooldown 68%, macro pressing nothing
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23%, readout silent 8%, plan skipped 647 frames, no bound slot 0, macro refused 0.
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The wall-clock column is not comparable: the raw and palette arms ran side by side on this box and
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the plan arm ran alone, which is the whole of the 2.48x against 3.49x. Nothing about the layer
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changed the per-frame cost — 215,020 frames in an hour in all three arms, as before.
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### What this establishes
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- **The early ladder is a walk now, not a search.** Out of the bedroom in 0.001 brain hours, into
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Pallet Town in 0.003 against palette's 0.013 and raw's 0.148, and into Oak's lab in 0.005
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against 0.249 and 0.156 — fifty times faster than palette mode on the rung palette mode was
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slowest on. That is `GO OBJECTIVE` reading the rung catalog's places and the drive doing nothing
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cleverer than "next step".
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- **`TALK` is in the plan and firing.** Dialog is 22% of the hour's frames, against none before the
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amendment, and `tests/rom_plan.rs` shows the same drive taking a starter from Oak's lab in 3.5
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brain minutes when the balls are on the table. Nothing refused and two blocked in 3,403.
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- **And the hour still ends on rung 4, for a different reason than before.** The starter is gated
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behind Oak's own script: `PalletTownDefaultScript` triggers on `wYCoord == 1`, Oak intercepts the
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player at the north edge of the town and walks them into the lab, and until that has run there
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are no Pokéballs on the table to talk to. The plan pulls the fly *into the lab* — rung 4's place
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is the lab, and rung 5's is the same room — so it does not spend time at the north edge, and
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nothing in the plan is aimed at a script trigger. The ROM test drives that one stretch itself and
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says so. **This is the next thing to decide**, and it is a contract question like the last one:
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either the rung catalog carries a place for rung 5 that is the trigger rather than the room, or
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the plan needs an entry for "the map edge the story is behind".
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- **It earns least of the three.** 4.650 reward per brain hour against palette's 6.650 and raw's
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9.200, on a quarter of the ground covered (63 new locations against 244 and 141). The plan walks
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to the places the ladder names and stops exploring, so the `boundary` and `exploration` payouts
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that carried palette mode's total do not arrive. Reaching rungs faster and earning less in the
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same hour is exactly the tension section 7's gate is about, and one hour of one seed does not
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settle it.
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### What it does not establish
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Nothing about the gate — one run, one seed, one brain hour, a fresh boot rather than the archived
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checkpoint, and no raw or palette arm run beside it on the same box at the same time. Nothing about
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the fly. Nothing about a long run: the reward attribution plan mode is for is a learning effect and
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an hour with 0 recoveries cannot show one.
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Two earlier plan hours were run and discarded, and both are worth knowing about rather than hiding:
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the first (digest `c9da99631adf4071`) predates the section 9.1 demotion and bounced between Oak's
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lab and Pallet Town once per hold; the second (`2c0e08fe5586d4bb`) predates the `TALK` amendment
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and so could not press A at anything. Neither is evidence about anything except the two faults it
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found.
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## plan (biased), one brain hour, 2026-09-16
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`docs/design/macros.md` section 10's blend, on the same box, the same fresh boot and the **same
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seed** as smoke run 1 and the plan row above, so all four compare. One arm again, for the same
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reason: the other numbers are already recorded and re-running them would measure the box's load.
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```sh
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FLY_ROM=".../Pokemon Red (U) [S][BF].gb" FLY_MACRO_BRAIN=data/fafb-v783 \
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FLY_MACRO_HOURS=1 FLY_MACRO_DIGEST=1 FLY_MACRO_THREADS=4 FLY_MACRO_SEED=20260916 \
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FLY_MACRO_ARMS=plan cargo run --release -p flysim --example palette_bench
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```
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Weights as shipped (`SceneBias::default`): overworld 0.3, dialog 0.95, menu 0.9, battle 0.9,
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battle-switch 0.95, shop 0.9, pc 0.9, unknown 0.5. `fly[slot]` is the spread across the bound
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slots (section 10 as amended the same day; the run on the first reading of that sentence is the
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note at the end of this section).
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| measure | raw | palette | plan | **plan (biased)** |
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| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
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| brain hours | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
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| frames | 215,020 | 215,020 | 215,020 | 215,020 |
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| wall seconds | 1,449 | 1,449 | 1,033 | 1,063 |
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| realtime factor | 2.48x | 2.48x | 3.49x | 3.39x |
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| rung reached | **5** (GOT A STARTER) | **4** | **4** | **4** (OAK'S LAB) |
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| reward per brain hour | **9.200** | 6.650 | 4.650 | 4.450 |
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| new locations | 141 | **244** | 63 | 59 |
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| recoveries | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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| frames with nothing pressed | 0 (0%) | 134,446 (63%) | 157,519 (73%) | 156,768 (73%) |
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| frames a macro owned the buttons | — | 118,500 (55%) | 90,989 (42%) | 84,708 (39%) |
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| macros started | 0 | 3,355 | 3,403 | 4,041 |
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| trajectory digest | `a25dbaef740223f0` | `0358f5d151216668` | `61f77acca870656e` | `ca2b9c96fdad264f` |
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Brain hours at each rung, from the shared starting frame:
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| rung | label | raw | palette | plan | **plan (biased)** |
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| ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
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| 0 | BOOT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
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| 1 | BEDROOM | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
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| 2 | DOWNSTAIRS | 0.008 | 0.001 | 0.001 | **0.001** |
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| 3 | PALLET TOWN | 0.148 | 0.013 | 0.003 | **0.003** |
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| 4 | OAK'S LAB | 0.156 | 0.249 | **0.005** | 0.025 |
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| 5 | GOT A STARTER | **0.185** | — | — | — |
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Macro outcomes: **4,041 started, 3,600 done, 440 blocked, 0 timeout, 0 refused.** Payouts by kind
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— boundary 20, exploration 5, map 4, milestone 2. Frames by scene: dialog 66%, overworld 34%.
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Silent frames by cause: decision cooldown 50%, readout silent 31%, macro pressing nothing 19%, no
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bound slot 0, macro refused 0.
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**Macros chosen by rank: rank 0 3,482 (86%), rank 2 455 (11%), rank 4 93 (2%), rank 3 11 (0%).**
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That is the row section 10's gate asks for, and it is a blend.
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### What this establishes
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- **The blend blends.** The fly took 14% of the decisions off the plan's head — 559 macros — and
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the plan kept the other 86%. Both halves are doing what the weights say: the overworld is a
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third of the hour's frames and `w = 0.3` there, dialog is two thirds and `w = 0.95`, so a
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rank-0-heavy overall split with the fly winning in the rooms is exactly the shape the operator's numbers
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describe. Rank 1 never won, which is the prior ladder's own doing: rank 1's prior is half rank
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0's, so a fly that leans on rank 1 has to beat 0.3 with 0.7 x 1.0 + 0.15 — it does, whenever it
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leans — and the reason the count is 0 rather than small is that the *policy* rarely offers a
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second entry the fly's leading channel points at. Worth watching over a longer run.
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- **The early ladder holds.** Downstairs 0.001 and Pallet Town 0.003, the same as the cursor
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drive. Oak's lab took 0.025 brain hours against the cursor drive's 0.005: five times slower and
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still six times faster than raw mode's 0.156 and ten times faster than palette mode's 0.249.
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That is the cost of letting the fly overrule the map on a third of its decisions, and it is the
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trade section 10 is asking for rather than a regression.
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- **440 blocked, against 2 on the cursor drive.** A blocked macro is one whose route stopped
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producing movement, and the fly interrupting a walk it did not choose is how that happens: the
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fly's slot wins a decision, its macro starts, and the *next* decision goes elsewhere. Nothing
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refused and nothing timed out in 4,041 starts, so the executor and the palette still agree on
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every start.
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- **The fly is still the only thing that starts a macro.** 31% of the silent frames are "readout
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silent" — every bound row at or under the readout's activity floor, or the spread flat — so a
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third of the doing-nothing is the fly saying nothing, and the scene never acted alone in it.
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### What it does not establish
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Nothing about the gate: one run, one seed, one brain hour, a fresh boot rather than the archived
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checkpoint, no other arm beside it on the same box at the same time, and the box was also running
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cartridge tests during this hour, so the wall-clock and realtime columns are worth even less than
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usual. Nothing about the fly. Nothing about a long run — and the reward attribution plan mode is
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for is a learning effect, which an hour with 0 recoveries cannot show.
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**The run that forced the amendment.** The same hour on the first reading of "the channel's
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normalized score in [0, 1]" — each channel against its own baseline, `clamp(score - 1, 0, 1)` —
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chose **rank 0 for all 4,399 of its macros** (digest `6abcbcbd815646fd`, 3.650 reward per brain
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hour, 36 new locations, rungs at 0.001/0.003/0.005). The fly decided whether a macro started and
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never which one, because the readout's score is a ratio around 1 whose directions sit inside a 9%
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spread (`docs/readout.md`): every vote landed in 0..0.1 while beating rank 0 at `w = 0.3` needs
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0.214. Same weights, same seed, same code otherwise — the whole difference between a blend and the
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plan alone was the unit the fly's vote is measured in.
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And one thing neither hour establishes: **the starter**. Section 9.1's `TALK` amendment relied on
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section 9's "a plan whose head changes puts the drive back at the top", and section 10 has no
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cursor to reset — `TALK` is rank 0, rank 0 is the UP channel, so the press that takes a Pokéball
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needs the fly to lean on UP while facing one. The cartridge test
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(`services/flysim/crates/flysim/tests/rom_plan.rs`) still reaches Oak's lab and its rung from the
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bedroom on a game-blind stub readout, in 1.6 brain minutes on 10 macros, but no stub took a
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starter under either reading of `fly[slot]`: every slot equal pressed A 615 times at one shelf, one
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hot slot per burst wandered out of the lab 367 times, and a committing rotation did the same over
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five times the frames (4,904 macros, `TALK` once, identical under both mappings). The starter leg
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is therefore off that test, with the finding recorded in it. **This is the next thing to decide.**
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## Smoke run 2: not yet measured
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The two causes smoke run 1 pointed at are fixed on `feat/macros-lab` (2026-09-16) — slot 2 is
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`GO ITEM` instead of the duplicate `LOOK`, and `GO EXIT` reads the adapter's `boundary` ledger
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through `GameAdapter::exit_visited` — and the harness now attributes every silent frame to its
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cause. **The re-run was deferred, so there is no smoke-2 table here yet.** Do not read the fixes as
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measured: all that is established is that they are wired, unit-tested and confirmed on the
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cartridge (`tests/rom_macros.rs`: `GO ITEM` walks to a starter ball in Oak's lab and `TALK` there
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hands over a Charmander; `GO ROUTE` -- `GO EXIT` when that run was recorded -- in Pallet Town
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leaves by an unvisited door rather than the one it came out of).
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When it is run, it is one brain hour per arm from a fresh boot on the same seed as the record
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above, so that the two tables compare:
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```sh
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FLY_ROM=".../Pokemon Red (U) [S][BF].gb" FLY_MACRO_BRAIN=data/fafb-v783 \
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FLY_MACRO_HOURS=1 FLY_MACRO_DIGEST=1 FLY_MACRO_THREADS=4 FLY_MACRO_SEED=20260916 \
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cargo run --release -p flysim --example palette_bench
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```
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The palette arm now prints one extra table, which is the question smoke run 1 could not answer
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about its own 63% of frames pressing nothing:
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| silent frame | meaning |
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| --- | --- |
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| macro pressing nothing | a macro owned the buttons and its script held nothing: a settle, the gap between two pulses, a wait for a menu cursor, or the frame it finished on |
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| readout silent | no channel was active, so the fly asked for nothing |
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| no bound slot | a channel was active and its slot is unbound in this scene |
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| decision cooldown | a channel was active and bound, but the last decision is less than one `holdMs` old |
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| macro refused | a bound macro's precondition had lapsed, or it found no route |
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"readout silent" means something slightly different in plan mode since section 10, because the
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channels there are scores rather than a set: it is a readout with every bound row's channel at or
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below the readout's own activity floor, i.e. a fly with nothing to say. The sixth cause, "plan
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skipped", is gone with the B-skips rule section 10 replaced.
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The split is what decides whether the palette is too small or never reached, and the two are
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different fixes: the first is a binding change in `docs/design/macros.md` section 3, the second is
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not. A trajectory digest that differs from smoke run 1's is expected and is not a harness fault —
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the fixes change which buttons get pressed, which is the point.
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## Running the real thing
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1. Pull the release box's durable checkpoint read-only (`/srv/fly/state/<gen>.checkpoint`) onto the
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dev box. Do not run this against the release container's live state directory.
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2. `FLY_MACRO_CHECKPOINT=/path/to/<gen>.checkpoint FLY_MACRO_HOURS=6` with three different
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`FLY_MACRO_SEED` values, one run per seed, both arms each.
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3. Record all three tables here with the checkpoint's generation and brain hours, and compare the
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brain hours at rung 6 and above. `FLY_MACRO_DIGEST=1` on every run: two runs of one arm with one
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seed on one box must print the same digest, and a digest that moves between runs means something
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in the harness is not deterministic and the numbers cannot be compared.
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4. Palette mode stays off (`FLY_MACRO_MODE=raw`, which is the default and what every env file
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carries) until that passes and the operator has seen the screen.
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The one-hour smoke run above takes about 24 minutes of wall time for both arms together; six hours
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per arm is about two and a half hours, so the three runs are most of a working day on this box.
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