# Live verification of the event-posting model, and two workloads (lane V, 2026-09-08)

Lane P wrote a numeric prediction of this run into `sots-engine docs/P-events-wiring.md` §4
**before** the run existed. This is the check. **The prediction held field for field on both
runs** — the strongest evidence this project produces, because it was written down first.

* Build `eventlive-dd38117-20260908T0916Z` (sots-engine main `dd38117`, no source change),
  cross-built on CT111 `/srv/re-lab/build/sots-engine-v`, staged `/srv/re-lab/shim/dist-v` →
  `C:\SOTS\shimdist-v` on VM140. Exports byte-identical to the real `binkw32.dll` (66 names).
* Recipe: `shim.cfg.recapb3` **unchanged**, `ref-turn2.sav` → Launch → End Turn, then four more
  End Turns in the same session (turn 2 → turn 7). One `rui.ps1` call per click, screenshot
  between every one.
* Oracle held: `(Autosave EndTurn).sav` = `bb4fd9ac89f41e3b…`, `(Autosave).sav` =
  `978041acd168b56e…` — identical to lane R's, so the events wiring does not perturb the game.
* Artefacts: `verify/traces/eventlive-b3-*.jsonl[.gz]`,
  `verify/results/compare/eventlive-b3-*.{json,md}`, shim logs and screenshots in
  `verify/results/shim/eventlive/`.

## 1. First End Turn — 3 calls, 3 compared, **0 divergent**, exit 0

Lane R's run exited 1 here with one divergent field
(`side.events.after.v.next_id orig=4 ours=3`). That field is now clean, and the fields lane P
named as "the model is right for the right reason" all read as forecast:

| field, call 0 | predicted | observed |
|---|---|---|
| `turn` | 3 | 3 |
| `events_turn_bucket_exists` | true | true |
| `events_next_id_in` | 3 | 3 |
| `events_in_turn_bucket` | 1 | 1 |
| `events_dedup_risk` | 0 | 0 |
| `events_scan_truncated` | absent | absent |
| `events.next_id` | 3 → 4 both sides | 3 → 4, no divergence |
| `events.turns` / `turns_bytes` | 2 / 0x30 unchanged | 2 / 48 unchanged |
| `node[144].progress` | 2879 → 5768 | 2879 → 5768 |
| `node[144].flag` | 1 → 2 | 1 → 2 |
| `rng` | identical | `left` 432→431, `next_index` 192→193, `mt` hash identical |
| `observed_techs.bytes` | unchanged, all 3 calls | 440 / 880 / 880, unchanged |

Alloc `{tech 144, 2889}`, species 2, `fpu_cw = 0x127f`. Calls 1 and 2 are the other players with
empty event lists (`EvNxID = 0`) and their scratch headers came back byte-identical.

## 2. Five End Turns — exit 1, **2 divergent calls**, each short by exactly 1

| call | alloc | draws | `next_id` orig → ours | predicted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | {144, 2889} | 1 | 4 → 4 | 4 / 4 ✓ |
| 3 | {144, 2898} | 0 | **7 → 6** | 7 / 6 ✓ |
| 6 | {142, 3064} | 1 | 8 → 8 | 8 / 8 ✓ |
| 9 | {142, 3074} | 0 (+1 in the callback, §4) | **12 → 11** | 12 / 11 ✓ |
| 12 | {9, 3086} | 1 | 14 → 14 | 14 / 14 ✓ |
| 1,2,4,5,7,8,10,11,13,14 | zero-spend | 0 | 0 → 0 | 0 / 0 ✓ |

Lane R's run had 3 divergent calls and the two completions were short by **two** ids each; both
are now short by **one**, and that one is `EVENT_TECHS_UNLOCKED`, which lane P deliberately did
not model because evaluating its trigger needs the child-unlock cascade `ours` does not run.
A 0-divergence result here would have been *suspicious*, not good.

Note the run is not lane R's run: from turn 4 the AI picks a different research target (lane R's
trap #2), and calls 6, 9 and 12 have different techs from lane R's capture. **The event id
totals landed on the predicted values anyway**, which is a stronger result than a replay would
have been.

### Guard conversion (`P-events-wiring.md` §4.3) — held

`observed_techs` is a Result region now, so `player+0x274/0x278/0x27c` no longer appear as
undeclared guard spans; the vector shows up in the diff as `observed_techs.bytes` instead.
Undeclared spans: **13 in 2 calls (lane R) → 10 in 2 calls**.

Guard spans this run, resolved against the recovered `ServerPlayer` table:

| offset | call 3 | call 9 | field |
|---|---|---|---|
| `player+0x10c/0x110/0x114` | 3 each | | `ConMod[0..2]` |
| `player+0x124` | 3 | | `OutMod` |
| `player+0x196` | | 1 | byte 2 of design-option **mask B** at `+0x194` (`TechMaskA + 4`) — lane R saw it from inside `OnTechResearched` as `b` 64 → 2097216 = `0x40 → 0x200040` |
| `player+0x294` | 4 | 4 | `ResTNm`, the research-target pointer cleared |
| `player+0x3b4` | | 1 | `ResErrRoll` = `research_roll_pending`, cleared by the callback |
| `tree_header+0x20` | 1 | 1 | the tree's completion-order counter |

So the two spans that are "new" relative to lane R are both already-named fields, seen from the
`ProcessResearch` caller instead of from inside `OnTechResearched`. Nothing here is unnamed.

## 3. `sizeof(Game::ObservedTech) = 44` — measured on the running game

| completion call | `observed_techs.bytes` (orig side) | delta |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 440 → 484 | **+44** |
| 9 | 484 → 528 | **+44** |

An independent **behavioural** confirmation of a purely static pin: lane X pinned 0x2c three
ways off the instruction stream (magic divide by 44, `imul reg,reg,0x2c`, `add edi,0x2c`) and
lane S mapped every field from the serializer. The running game agrees to the byte. Both
non-researching players' vectors measured 880 = 20 × 44 on all 15 calls and never moved.
Recorded on `ObservedTech_sizeof` and `ServerPlayer_off_ObservedTechs` in `ghidra/addresses.json`.

Caveat for the lane that wires the append: `RecordObservedTech` (0x007ba1a0) de-duplicates by
tech name, so a re-observation appends nothing. "No delta" is not a contradiction until you have
checked whether the tech was already observed.

## 4. One deviation from lane R, and it is a workload effect

`rng` diverged on call 9: original `left` 374 / `next_index` 250, `ours` 375 / 249 — **the
original drew one word `ours` did not.**

That is the `RollResearchEvent` draw inside `OnTechResearched`, at exactly the two generator
positions lane R measured from inside that hook (`left` 375 → 374, `next_index` 249 → 250) when
`IND_TRKSTL` completed with `research_roll_pending` set. B3 declared `SetResearched` and its
owner callback out of scope, and `P-events-wiring.md` §3 says the callback "consumes one extra
RNG word", so this is a declared boundary showing itself.

**What it corrects:** lane R's "**RNG matched 15 of 15**" was workload luck, not a property.
Lane R's five-turn session happened not to complete a roll-triggering tech on the B3 hook; mine
did. The honest statement is: `ProcessResearch`'s `rng` region reproduces bit-for-bit on every
call that does not complete a roll-triggering tech, and is short by exactly one draw on every
call that does — until whichever lane takes `SetResearched` models the callback.

## 5. Workload unblocked: **Zuul double roll, closed**

The board row asked for one live compare from a species-5 save where `left` drops by 2, not 1.
No save in `verify/` had a Zuul player, so the double roll was disassembly + host tests only.

Made on the VM: a custom game with **only Zuul left enabled in the Available Species pool**
(so both players are Zuul), same 28-star / 2-player / 7 ly settings, then four End Turns under
the same `shim.cfg.recapb3` compare config.

**8 calls, 8 compared, 0 divergent, `tracecmp` exit 0.** The four researching calls all have
`species = 5` and all advance the generator by **two**:

| call | turn | alloc | `left` | `next_index` | `mt` hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | {144, 982} | 540 → **538** | 84 → **86** | unchanged |
| 2 | 3 | {144, 960} | 522 → **520** | 102 → **104** | unchanged |
| 4 | 4 | {144, 1417} | 504 → **502** | 120 → **122** | unchanged |
| 6 | 5 | {144, 1372} | 485 → **483** | 139 → **141** | unchanged |

`ours` reproduced every one bit-for-bit (the `rng` region is compared, and no call diverged).
Calls 1, 3, 5, 7 are the second Zuul player with a zero allocation — no draw, and clean.

Save: `verify/results/saves/zuul-turn5-species5.sav`
(sha256 `48559ab5b719b332e47b4bf43af85a616bff1508125d62edb211b80637234af6`, 59,131 B, turn 5,
2 Zuul players, homeworld **Gallandro**, Rip Bore DE in Alpha Fleet, `Slaves: 0` on the planet
panel). Left on the VM as `C:\SOTS\SavedGames\zuul-turn5.sav`.

No tech completed in five turns (node 144 reached ~4,700 of 5,000), so this save does **not**
yet exercise a Zuul completion, `SetResearched`, or the Zuul boarding-pod grant. Load it and run
one more End Turn to get there.

## 6. Workloads NOT achieved

* **Expense sliders / a debtor / a research-aid treaty.** Not attempted. The eight always-zero
  `ComputeBudget` slots stay unexercised. Getting there needs deliberate overspending across
  several turns and a second empire willing to sign an aid treaty — a multi-turn play session,
  not a click path.
* **A save that sets `research_roll_pending` at load time.** Not made. The flag was *observed*
  set and cleared inside a turn (§4), which is what the RollResearchEvent row already covers,
  but there is still no save that starts with it true.
* **A tech completion in the Zuul game.** One more End Turn from `zuul-turn5.sav` should do it.

## 7. VM140 click-path notes (additions to `running-the-game.md`)

* **The >60 s startup is real, a third time.** After `schtasks /Run /TN SOTS` the Kerberos intro
  is still on screen at t+30 s and the main menu appeared at ≈ t+70 s. Screenshot and verify;
  never sleep-and-click.
* **One click per `rui.ps1` call, confirmed again.** A five-click `cmd.txt` on the Available
  Species checkboxes lost sync and left three of five toggles in the wrong state. Single clicks
  with a screenshot between worked every time.
* **`type` into the game's text fields did not register** in this session — neither the Create
  Game name field nor the Save Game file-name field took `SendKeys` text (the field simply kept
  its default). Workaround used: save under the default name and **rename the `.sav` on disk**
  afterwards; the Load dialog lists files by filename, so a renamed save appears correctly.
* **Load-dialog geometry with the 8-file set is unchanged for existing lanes.** `zuul-turn5`
  sorts after `ref-turn2`, so `ref-turn2` is still row 7 at **(400, 436)** and `zuul-turn5` is
  the new row 8 at **(400, 465)**. Rows are 29 px apart from y = 262. Verified by screenshot
  (`verify/results/shim/eventlive/load-dialog-8files.png`).
* Custom Game Setup coordinates (1024×768 windowed): species checkboxes at y = 449, x = 178
  (Human) / 322 (Hiver) / 466 (Tarkas) / 611 (Liir) / 901 (Morrigi) — all five clicked and
  verified; Zuul's sits at x ≈ 756 by the same 144-px pitch but was never clicked. `Create Game`
  (836, 707); game-name `OK` (600, 393); lobby `Launch` (511, 663). The setup screen **remembers
  the previous game's settings**, so 28 stars / 2 players carried over from the reference game.
* Quit path used at the end: menu (1000, 714) → `Quit to Main Menu` (938, 699) → `OK` (537, 377).

## 8. VM state left behind

Restored: build `recap-7584bad-20260908T0615Z` from `C:\SOTS\shimdist-recap`, `hooks=trace`,
**main menu verified by screenshot**. `C:\SOTS\shimdist-v` and `C:\SOTS\ui\v{deploy,release,click}.ps1`
left in place as a template. `SavedGames` now holds **8** files: the pre-existing 7 plus
`zuul-turn5.sav`; the three autosaves belong to the Zuul game (they were the reference game's
before, and are transient either way).