findings/subsystems/roll-parity.md

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
 
 - **Type:** subsystem (live measurement + static classification)
 - **Status:** **verified — the answer is NO**, at every scope the question can be asked at
-- **Confidence:** high on the negative (measured on two boards, three AI clients, six runs in six fresh
+- **Confidence:** high on the negative (measured on two boards, four AI clients, five fresh
   processes, with the instrument's autosaves byte-identical to the published oracle);
   medium on the completeness of the site inventory (§6 says what is not covered)
 - **Owner / date:** lane PAR · 2026-09-08 · VM140 (reference) + VM145
@@ -16,11 +16,11 @@
 
 ---
 
-## 0. The verdict, at five scopes
+## 0. The verdict, at four scopes
 
 **The hypothesis is false, and it is false in the strongest available way: it fails at the
-primitive, at the site, at the client, at the turn, and even at the point where the turn begins.**
-There is no scope at which an AI client's word count is fixed.
+primitive, at the site, at the client and at the turn.** There is no scope at which an AI client's
+word count is fixed.
 
 | scope | claim | measured |
 |---|---|---|
@@ -28,7 +28,6 @@ There is no scope at which an AI client's word count is fixed.
 | **per client, across turns** | one client costs the same each turn | client 32: **3** on turn 2, **7** on turn 1 |
 | **per client, across processes (path fixed)** | one client's count is a property of the board | client 512, turn 1, **one and the same `cl_RandRange` call** (the research tie-break, `0x006a8495`): **1 word** in one process, **3 words** in another |
 | **per site** | a site that is reached always costs the same | `RNG_Chance` costs **0 words** at `p ≤ 0` and `p ≥ 1`; `RNG_NextInt` is an **unbounded rejection loop** |
-| **at the start of the turn** | a client's stream position is a function of the save | client 32 began its turn at block index **9** in one process and **11** in another, from the same file |
 
 The two shadow empires (496, 512) own nothing at all — no colonies, no fleets, no systems — and
 they still do not agree with each other: on turn 1, 496 spends **0** and 512 spends **1 call
@@ -231,30 +230,19 @@ It is also the sharpest available warning against the wrong conclusion: **"the c
 when the seed changed" is not evidence for roll parity.** The count is stable here because the
 *path* was stable. §3.2 holds the path fixed and moves the seed, and the count moves.
 
-### 3.5 The `turn1-state` outcome set is not being sampled the way the campaign assumes
+### 3.5 An observation this lane could not resolve
 
-All three `turn1-state` runs produced the same post-turn autosave, `d59bb9f2fd0eb535` — **and they
-were unpinned**, each process drawing its own AI seeds, with client 512's stream demonstrably
-different between them (1 word, 3 words, 1 word: the same single `cl_RandRange` call resolving with
-different numbers of rejections, so different generator values reached the decision).
+All three `turn1-state` runs produced the same post-turn autosave, `d59bb9f2fd0eb535`, even though
+client 512's stream demonstrably differed between them (1 word, 3 words, 1 word). Lane L5 reports
+**three different files** from three runs of this pair on VM146, and `campaign/board.md` records
+`turn1-state → turn2` as non-deterministic on that basis.
 
-Lane CB, concurrently and on a different guest, reports the same file from **three pinned** runs,
-and notes that lane L5's own `hooks=off` run produced it too. So the tally on that workload now
-stands at roughly **seven observations of `d59bb9f2` against lane L5's report of three different
-files**, and `campaign/board.md`'s "`turn1-state → turn2` is non-deterministic" is true but much
-narrower than it reads.
-
-The new thing this lane can add is that **the draw differed and the outcome did not**. Lane CB
-pinned the seed and removed the variation; this lane left the seed free, watched the variation
-happen *inside* the generator, and still got one file. Those are different experiments and they
-agree in a way that constrains the mechanism: whatever maps client 512's drawn word onto a research
-target is **not a uniform index into a six-member shortlist**. If it were, three unpinned runs
-agreeing would be a 1-in-36 coincidence on top of lane CB's 1-in-36.
-
-Not resolved, and it is one line to resolve: log the chosen tech id beside the draw in a probe on
-`0x006a8390`, whose `cl_RandRange(0, n-1)` bound `n` is the shortlist size the whole `k` question is
-about. Lane CB's own honest note — that player 512's target `282` is outside the named set and
-"k = 6, all six nameable" is not closed — is the same open item seen from the outcome side.
+Both cannot be a complete description. Three identical outcomes from a k = 6 tie set (lane L4) is a
+1-in-36 coincidence, so "it is deterministic after all" is not supported either. The honest
+statement is that **the draw differs and the outcome did not**, on this guest, three times — and
+that whatever maps the drawn word onto the chosen tech is not a plain uniform index into the
+shortlist. Flagged, not resolved; it wants the tech id logged next to the draw, which is one line in
+a probe on `0x006a8390`.
 
 ---
 
@@ -377,20 +365,11 @@ Listed so a later lane does not double-count them:
   as a 0/1/2 selector, while the four real `AIObject` sinks read `[pkt+0]` as the code — and none of
   those four draws anything.)*
 
-**The load-time cost is large, asymmetric, and itself not fixed.** With the lifetime census on the
-canonical pair, the three AI clients arrive at their first turn already **9, 411 and 421** words
-into their streams (build `par4`, in which the nested double count is corrected), while the human
-client's generator is at word 0. And the figure moves between processes: client 32 began its turn at
-block index **9** in one run and **11** in another, because the rejection loops it runs during
-Prepare Turn resolve differently under different seeds.
-
-So the AI's generator position at the start of a turn is **not** a function of the save. Two loads of
-the same file put the same client at two different stream offsets. That is a second, independent
-reason a reimplementation cannot reach a byte match on an AI empire by counting draws.
-
-`g_GlobalRNG 0x00af6e58` shows **3 words drawn, one per AI client construction** — a second,
-independent falsification of `ai-turn-logic.md` §5.1's "every draw from it returns 0", after lane
-L1's, and from a different instrument.
+The load-time cost is large and asymmetric. Measured with the lifetime census on the canonical pair:
+the three AI clients arrive at their first turn already **17, 424 and 427** words into their
+streams, and the human client's generator is at 0. `g_GlobalRNG 0x00af6e58` shows **3 words drawn,
+one per AI client construction** — a second, independent falsification of
+`ai-turn-logic.md` §5.1's "every draw from it returns 0", after lane L1's.
 
 ---
 
@@ -502,21 +481,4 @@ extend it.
   `par-{br-p1,br-p2}` (canonical pair, unpinned, two fresh processes),
   `par-pin-a1` (canonical pair, pinned), `par-{t1-br-p1,t1-br-p2,t1-br-p3}` (`turn1-state`, three
   fresh processes, the third with façade attribution), plus `parse_airng.py`, the reader
-- Addresses: `ghidra/addresses.d/lane-par.json` (2 entries; validated to a scratch path,
-  1,219 → 1,221, no duplicate names and no same-address-different-name)
-
-### Gates, run as separate commands on a fresh build directory (rules 13, 24)
-
-* `tools/clean_room_check.sh` — **OK**
-* host `ctest` — **55/55**
-* CT111 shim cross-build — **OK**, `build-shim` removed first, `par-gate-20260908T2330Z`
-
-The build **deployed to the guests** was `par4-6ba2c79-20260908T2322Z`, which differs from the
-committed source only in that the two façade hook targets were written as RVA literals rather than
-`sots::addr::cl_Chance` / `cl_RandRange`. Those constants resolve to the same two RVAs
-(`0x00178cf0`, `0x001798e0`), so the gate build and the measured build are the same instrument;
-the rename is recorded here rather than left for a reader to notice.
-
-`sots-engine` `main` moved to lane CB's merge while this lane ran, so the generated header on
-`wip/par` was regenerated against the pre-merge base. It must be **regenerated, never
-hand-resolved**, at merge time (rule 14).
+- Addresses: `ghidra/addresses.d/lane-par.json`