Predicted at turn 34 with the run in flight, from min_life falling by exactly
1 per turn: the first phase-11 draw on turn 64, exactly 1 word, tail total 1,
bracket = ProcessTurn + 1. The game was played to turn 64 and every clause
held. predict_words, computed before the original ran, said 1 and the
measurement said 1 -- a real check of the model, against 63 preceding turns
where 0 matched 0 and checked nothing.
So the defect lane K warned about is no longer latent: on that turn a
reimplementation modelling ProcessTurn perfectly would have written an autosave
one word out of step.
And the instrument's thinnest part ran live on the same turn -- ProcessTurn
crossed a block boundary (left 11 -> 615, one twist, 20 words) and the bracket
still reconciled to residual 0.
We consume 18-22 generator words per turn and model none of them as a count.
All of it is inside StrategyServer::ProcessTurn; OnAllCombatDone_Tail costs 0
on every turn observed; the residual outside the two drivers is exactly 0. The
generator does not move between turns at all, so the interval a standalone has
to reproduce is closed at both ends.
The instrument reads generator STATE, not calls, and that choice paid: the
image has four draw entry points, not three (NextUInt 0x004f7670 is in no
lane's primitive set) plus inlined draws in twelve functions, two reachable
from the turn roots. A primitive-counting hook would have undercounted
silently.
Checked against the save files independently: the turn-6 autosave pair gives
18 words read from the two Sim.RNG blobs, and with twists == 0 that number
never passes through a twist implementation -- so the two instruments do not
share the hidden assumption they could have.
Corrections to combat-done-tail.md, in place:
* the node-line 0x20000-fleet check runs AFTER the Chance(0.5f) call and
cannot gate the draw; the expiry test is NodePath::RemainingLife 0x006e2130
and is now a formula rather than a description
* StrategyHost::Autosave is ret 8 and returns the std::string* in EAX
* SNMAllCombatDone IS delivered every End Turn (8 of 8) -- lane K's inference
was right; the stronger no-encounter reading is narrowed, not closed
* S+0x8 advances 12-14 times per turn, not twice
Node-line decay still has not fired. The hook reports the distance instead of
the absence: 51 of 53 lines are permanent, the mortal ones are dug ~1/turn by
the Zuul, each ~40 turns from expiry. It stays a labelled hypothesis.
Reads: TechTree::PrereqsMet 0x0057d8e0 (AND of ORs; zero groups TRUE, an empty
group FALSE), the prerequisite layout at TechDef+0x88/+0x98, the tail collector
0x00587cc3, and the head of OnTechResearched (RecordObservedTech unconditional;
the research-event roll gated on ResT == def && ResearchRollPending).
Live: 35 compared calls over three workloads, 0 divergences, tracecmp exit 0,
End-Turn oracle hashes unchanged. The EVENT_TECHS_UNLOCKED residual lane P
predicted and lane V measured is closed by running the cascade, not by posting
on completion.
12 new addresses in ghidra/addresses.d/lane-u.json (header 615 -> 627).
Lane P wrote the expected numbers into sots-engine docs/P-events-wiring.md §4 before
this run existed. Every one held.
First End Turn (ref-turn2 -> Launch -> End Turn, shim.cfg.recapb3 unchanged, build
eventlive-dd38117-20260908T0916Z, main dd38117 with no source change): 3 calls, 3
compared, 0 divergent, tracecmp exit 0 — where lane R's run exited 1 on
side.events.after.v.next_id orig=4 ours=3. Call 0 read turn=3,
events_turn_bucket_exists=true, events_next_id_in=3, events_in_turn_bucket=1,
events_dedup_risk=0, no events_scan_truncated, next_id 3->4 on both sides,
turns/turns_bytes 2/48 unchanged, node[144].progress 2879->5768, flag 1->2, rng
identical — the whole predicted list.
Five End Turns: exit 1 with 2 divergent calls instead of 3, each short by exactly 1
(next_id orig 7 ours 6, orig 12 ours 11) = the deliberately unmodelled
EVENT_TECHS_UNLOCKED. A 0-divergence result there would have been suspicious.
sizeof(Game::ObservedTech) = 44 measured live: observed_techs.bytes grew by exactly
44 on both completion calls (440->484, 484->528), confirming lane X's static pin
behaviourally. Non-researching players measured 880 = 20 x 44 and never moved.
One deviation from lane R, and it is a workload effect, not a defect: rng diverged on
call 9 because the completed tech had research_roll_pending set and the
OnTechResearched callback drew one word ours does not (left 374 vs 375). Lane R's
"RNG matched 15 of 15" was workload luck; the honest statement is that the rng region
matches on every call that does not complete a roll-triggering tech.
Zuul double roll CLOSED. No species-5 save existed, so this lane made one: a custom
game with only Zuul in the Available Species pool, 4 End Turns under the same compare
config. 8 calls, 8 compared, 0 divergent, exit 0; all four researching calls have
species=5 and advance the generator by two, not one (left 540->538, 522->520,
504->502, 485->483), and ours reproduced every post-state bit-for-bit. Save added as
verify/results/saves/zuul-turn5-species5.sav.
End-Turn oracle byte-identical to lane R's on the first turn, so none of this
perturbs the game. clean_room_check OK and host ctest 33/33, run as separate commands.
VM140 restored to the recap build at the main menu and released.
Five hooks recaptured, build recap-7584bad-20260908T0615Z, no source change.
- ProcessResearch: the over-budget event is now a compare divergence
(side.events.after.v.next_id orig=4 ours=3) instead of a 609 KB save diff.
15 calls over 5 turns, 3 diverged, RNG matched 15/15.
- ComputeBudget: 4284 compared, 0 diverged, guard quiet - but only 20 distinct
states and 13 of 22 slots always zero.
- MoveFleet: 8 of 45 calls diverge by 1 ULP of position. B4's clean verdict was
a one-sample verdict.
- First guarded captures for OnTechResearched (RollResearchEvent draw fired and
matched), the colony turn and MoveFleet.
- Guards mapped SetResearched live and found an undeclared ObservedTech append.
VM140 released at the main menu, hooks=trace.
