board: lane RB - ModCount reaches 24 with zero residual; matched triple; rates memory-vs-wire order defect

campaign/board.md

@@ -349,3 +349,9 @@ Status flow: `backlog → in-progress → mapped → verified` (or `blocked`).
 | THE ONE PROBE: pinned seeds THROUGH the resolver | verify | backlog | — | 0% | 2026-09-08 | The seed SOURCE is not the probe. The resolver probe is only an experiment **if the seed is pinned** - otherwise two runs with two unknown seeds cannot separate "draws from the stream" from "reads something else per-process". Implementation named: L1's `l1seed` Seed detour (return address 0x0078304b, three constants) + L4's instrument + a `left` region over client+0x134 at TryResearchCandidate 0x006c8580; ref-turn2 once as the pin's OWN control; turn1-state twice; then sweep by quit-to-menu/reload (the pin table advances per load, **no relaunch needed**), logging which producer returned non-null for player 512. Predictions committed in the resolution 4. If the four leaves still differ, extend the pin to the unidentified fourth seeded object |
 | NEW OPEN RISK: g_GlobalRNG has four other consumers | verify | backlog | — | 0% | 2026-09-08 | Including **RunCombatRound+0x60f** - and **no battle turn has ever been compared across two processes**. Add "twice, two processes" to the battle workload in backlog 5. Lane L2 verified combat lockstep between two clients in ONE game; this is the different question of whether a battle is reproducible across separate runs |
 | CORRECTION: neither hooks=off run was a control | verify | verified | high | 100% | 2026-09-08 | Rule 26. Three lanes ran hooks=off on turn1-state and got **three different files**, so no single hooks=off run on that workload ever exonerated anything. And lane L4's "run R2 is byte-identical to the hooks=off control" is a **~1/k COINCIDENCE, not a control** - with an outcome set of size k, agreement by chance is expected. Rule 19 said take the measurement with the instrument removed; it did not say what to do when THE CONTROL ITSELF VARIES |
+| ModCount IS NOW REACHABLE - 24 exactly, zero residual | engine | verified | high | 100% | 2026-09-08 | Lane RB. **The leaf the campaign has called "not derivable from a save" since lane A2.** Our turn writes 14 where the original writes 24; **the missing ten ARE the command stream**, and `sots_turn --turn-commands` puts it on **24 exactly** - 2 drivers + 4 research-rate gates (one per SUBMITTING block, including the human who ordered nothing) + list 3 + list 5 + list 10 + 2x list 14 + list 8, with the list-23 population element FREE. **The 1-16/17-27 cost boundary held on the first workload that ever populated the free half.** What it does NOT reproduce: everything else - seven of the ten commands need subsystems we lack, and the three we can apply are all no-ops here (the AI re-issues rates and sliders the save already holds) |
+| THE MATCHED TRIPLE - and it correctly FAILS to close one leaf | verify | verified | high | 100% | 2026-09-08 | The campaign's first (input, stream, that run's output) set. Canonical pair 108 -> 63 -> **62** with the stream (closed 46, regressed 0); secondary 209 -> 124 -> 118; **matched triple 209 -> 124 -> 117 (closed 92)**. Against the HISTORICAL oracle it closes six and **correctly leaves player 512's ResTNm diverging** - the recording picked XNC_TrnsMorr2, turn2-state holds BIO_GnMod. **That was predicted before the run: a replay that CLOSED it would have meant something was copying the oracle.** This is the C-exact / C-set distinction demonstrated on real data - the stream reproduces its own run, not a different run's tiebreak |
+| a falsified prediction found a defect in TWO lanes | verify | verified | high | 100% | 2026-09-08 | RB's P3 predicted regressed 0; **the first run regressed 2**. Cause: the rates frame is dumped in MEMORY order and **its memory field order is not its wire order** - the AI's one non-zero slider went into SRt where the oracle holds SRsc = 1.0. **Memory member 1 is wire member SRsc**; six members unread. **Lane CB's JSON decoder has the identical defect** - RB's adapter masks it engine-side but the JSON is the capture of record, so the list-5 record should be dropped or emitted in wire order with the mapping stated. Routed to CB mid-flight |
+| apply order verified three ways - and honestly unfalsifiable here | control-flow | verified | high | 90% | 2026-09-08 | Thirty steps: lists `6 11 20 19 17 18 5 23 24`, gate loop A, `1 4 3 21 2 22 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 7 8 25 27 26`, gate loops B and C. Verified three ways: the six inlined bump sites plus the three gate-loop heads are **strictly increasing in address in exactly that step order** (9 of 30 positions independently re-derived, the other 21 inherited from AI4); bijection of 1..27; and **neither the list nor the offset sequence is ascending, so a sorted implementation cannot pass**. **STATED PLAINLY BY THE LANE: apply order is unfalsifiable on this corpus** - every non-empty list is one player's and every command names one system |
+| CB's capture replays unchanged; first AI seeds landed | verify | verified | high | 100% | 2026-09-08 | RB did not duplicate CB's tool - `tools/tcb_from_json.py` joins them, CB's JSON staying the capture of record and `.tcb` the engine's parser-free input. **CB's real VM146 capture replays through it unchanged to the identical canonical result**, and brings the first **AI seeds** (32 -> 0x9dfad635, 496 -> 0xb482b2d8, 512 -> 0xfb81e993 - now Rung C's primary input) plus heap payloads closing two gap rows: list 8's route is [272], list 10's vector is [1728], a ship the input save already contains |
+| Rung B completeness gap (the real backlog) | verify | backlog | — | 0% | 2026-09-08 | From RB, full table in its finding: ship construction; **the client's ID ALLOCATOR** - design 18 and fleet 34 are allocated CLIENT-SIDE before submission, and it is a watchpoint not a week of reading; the rates frame's memory order; list 10's and list 14's EFFECTS; the Population body; **techId -> name** (the wire carries an id, the save a name; today transcribed from the capture and reported in its own column, with 144/90/288 -> IND_Waldo/DRV_PlsFiss/XNC_TrnsMorr2); the civilian-ratios gate has **NO APPLIER ANYWHERE** so its cost is unknown NOT zero; and whether the **load-time batch** charges the counter is untested |