board: lane U research slice closed; claim VM140 for lane O

campaign/board.md

@@ -59,7 +59,7 @@ Status flow: `backlog → in-progress → mapped → verified` (or `blocked`).
 | P2-B3 ProcessResearch (behavioral, RNG) | phase2 | mapped | high | 85% | 2026-09-08 | LIVE, PARTIAL PASS: 15 calls compared, 13 zero-divergence; RNG post-state matched 14/15 incl. every roll (validates MT19937 + draw mapping + odds together). 2 divergences are the declared SetResearched boundary. ORACLE FAILS by exactly one item across 40,300: an unposted EVENT_RESEARCH_OVERBUDGET - compare was blind because the event list was never a declared region. fpu_cw=0x127f => 53-bit double, x87 question SETTLED. No Zuul in the save: double roll still disassembly-only . RECAPTURED WITH GUARDS 2026-09-08 (lane R): the oracle gap is now a COMPARE DIVERGENCE - `side.events.after.v.next_id orig=4 ours=3` on call 0, its only divergent field, with node[144] progress 2879->5768 and flag 1->2 both reproduced and the single RNG draw identical. 15 calls over 5 turns: 3 diverged, **RNG 15/15** (better than the original 14/15 - no tech-effect draw in this session). Guards on the two completion calls map SetResearched: ConMod[0..2]/OutMod/PopMod, ResTNm, TechTree+0x20 order counter, and the undeclared otch vector | . **LANE V 2026-09-08 (build `eventlive-dd38117-20260908T0916Z`): the events divergence is CLOSED on the reference turn** - 3 calls, 3 compared, **0 diverged, exit 0**. Over 5 turns 15 calls / **2** diverged (was 3), both short by exactly 1 `next_id` = the unmodelled `EVENT_TECHS_UNLOCKED`. **CORRECTION to lane R's 'RNG 15/15': that was WORKLOAD LUCK, not a property.** On lane V's call 9 the completed tech had `research_roll_pending` set, so the original drew one word `ours` did not (`left` 374 vs 375, `next_index` 250 vs 249) - the `OnTechResearched` callback draw, a DECLARED out-of-scope boundary (P-events-wiring §3 says so in as many words). Honest statement: the `rng` region reproduces bit-for-bit on every call that does not complete a roll-triggering tech, and is short by exactly one draw on every call that does. Also live: `sizeof(ObservedTech)` = **44**, measured twice (`observed_techs.bytes` 440->484 and 484->528). Zuul double roll now CLOSED on a species-5 save lane V made - see its own row
 | RNG signatures (Ghidra) | meta | verified | high | 100% | 2026-09-08 | Seed/Twist/NextFloat/NextInt verified; draw = y/(2^32-1); NextInt [0,n] inclusive; lazy twist; left@+0x9c4. RUNTIME CONFIRMED: fpu_cw=0x127f (53-bit double, round-nearest) - our next_float model is right, float_from_pc24 is an unused contingency |
 | engine: game/effects | engine | verified | high | 100% | 2026-09-08 | merged: TechId enum (196 slots @10000+i), 44 ids with typed strategic effects, species flag bits, ApplyTechEffect; 254 checks |
-| VM140 exclusivity (lab rule) | meta | verified | high | 100% | 2026-09-08 | one agent at a time. Holder: **FREE** (U-unlock released 2026-09-08 06:55 local; V-eventlive before it; F-fpucw before it, M-movefleet before that). QUEUE: empty. VM left at the MAIN MENU, `hooks=trace`, build `recap-7584bad-20260908T0615Z` restored from `C:\SOTS\shimdist-recap` (that dist also carries `shim.cfg.recap{trace,b3,b1,misc}`). Lane M also left `C:\SOTS\shimdist-mf` + `C:\SOTS\ui\mf{deploy,release}.ps1` in place - harmless, and a working template for the next lane. Windows Update DISABLED/paused on the VM. Non-holders build /srv/re-lab/build/sots-engine-<lane>, stage dist-<lane>, deploy C:\SOTS\shimdist-<lane>. GOTCHA (lane R): after `schtasks /Run /TN SOTS` the main menu can take >60 s - SCREENSHOT AND VERIFY before clicking, or the click path lands in Credits. GOTCHA (lane M): drive the load dialog ONE rui.ps1 CALL PER CLICK with a screenshot between - a single chained cmd.txt loses sync and silently ends up somewhere else. And the Load Game dialog does NOT pre-select Single Player on a fresh launch: the documented path really is Load Game (512,536) -> Single Player (512,290) -> OK (551,523) -> row -> OK (682,624) -> Launch (511,663). ref-turn2 row is at (400,436) GOTCHA (lane F, confirms lane R): the >60 s startup is REAL and cost a whole wasted run — do not sleep-and-click, **verify the main menu from a screenshot** (`verify/fpu-cw/` run scripts poll a screenshot until the Load Game / Exit buttons are bright red; 3 probes ≈ 25 s was typical). TIP (lane F): reset `SavedGames\` to a fixed file set before every run — the Load dialog row positions depend on how many files are listed, so a constant set means the click path never has to be re-derived (with the 4-file set ref-turn2 sits at (400,348), not (400,436)). PowerShell over SSH mangles quoting badly: send snippets base64 as `powershell -EncodedCommand`, or use `-ExecutionPolicy Bypass -File`. Lane F left `C:\SOTS\shimdist-fpu` + `C:\SOTS\ui\f{deploy,grab,fpu}.ps1` + `C:\SOTS\ui\preF\` (the pre-lane-F SavedGames snapshot, restored) in place. VM RESTORED: recap build `recap-7584bad-20260908T0615Z`, `hooks=trace`, SavedGames back to the 7-file pre-F set, main menu verified by screenshot. GOTCHA (lane V, third confirmation): the >60 s startup is REAL - the Kerberos intro was still on screen at t+30 s and the main menu appeared at ~t+70 s. GOTCHA (lane V): `type <text>` via the click helper did **NOT** register in the game's text fields this session (neither the Create Game name nor the Save Game file name took SendKeys); the workaround is to accept the default name and **rename the `.sav` on disk** - the Load dialog lists files by FILENAME. SAVEDGAMES IS NOW **8 FILES**: the pre-existing 7 plus `zuul-turn5.sav` (a species-5 save, see the Zuul row). Row positions are UNCHANGED for existing lanes because `zuul-turn5` sorts last: **ref-turn2 is still (400,436)**, zuul-turn5 is the new row 8 at (400,465), rows 29 px apart from y=262 - verified by screenshot `verify/results/shim/eventlive/load-dialog-8files.png`. The three autosaves now belong to the Zuul game. Lane V left `C:\SOTS\shimdist-v` + `C:\SOTS\ui\v{deploy,release,click}.ps1`. VM RESTORED: recap build `recap-7584bad-20260908T0615Z`, `hooks=trace`, main menu verified by screenshot. LANE U (2026-09-08): left `C:\SOTS\shimdist-u` + `C:\SOTS\ui\u{deploy,release}.ps1` in place. SavedGames is STILL 8 FILES (the three autosaves now belong to the Zuul game at turn 15) - **ref-turn2 is still (400,436)**, zuul-turn5 still (400,465). A QEMU-level screenshot (feed `screendump /tmp/vm140.ppm` to `qm monitor 140` on spicy, then scp the .ppm) is more reliable than the click helper's `shot` action and does not need the game window. FOURTH confirmation of the >60 s startup: the Kerberos intro was still on screen at t+45 s, the main menu at ~t+85 s. VM RESTORED: recap build `recap-7584bad-20260908T0615Z`, `hooks=trace`, main menu verified by screenshot. |
+| VM140 exclusivity (lab rule) | meta | verified | high | 100% | 2026-09-08 | one agent at a time. Holder: **O-workloads** (U-unlock released 2026-09-08 06:55 local; V-eventlive before it; F-fpucw before it, M-movefleet before that). QUEUE: empty. VM left at the MAIN MENU, `hooks=trace`, build `recap-7584bad-20260908T0615Z` restored from `C:\SOTS\shimdist-recap` (that dist also carries `shim.cfg.recap{trace,b3,b1,misc}`). Lane M also left `C:\SOTS\shimdist-mf` + `C:\SOTS\ui\mf{deploy,release}.ps1` in place - harmless, and a working template for the next lane. Windows Update DISABLED/paused on the VM. Non-holders build /srv/re-lab/build/sots-engine-<lane>, stage dist-<lane>, deploy C:\SOTS\shimdist-<lane>. GOTCHA (lane R): after `schtasks /Run /TN SOTS` the main menu can take >60 s - SCREENSHOT AND VERIFY before clicking, or the click path lands in Credits. GOTCHA (lane M): drive the load dialog ONE rui.ps1 CALL PER CLICK with a screenshot between - a single chained cmd.txt loses sync and silently ends up somewhere else. And the Load Game dialog does NOT pre-select Single Player on a fresh launch: the documented path really is Load Game (512,536) -> Single Player (512,290) -> OK (551,523) -> row -> OK (682,624) -> Launch (511,663). ref-turn2 row is at (400,436) GOTCHA (lane F, confirms lane R): the >60 s startup is REAL and cost a whole wasted run — do not sleep-and-click, **verify the main menu from a screenshot** (`verify/fpu-cw/` run scripts poll a screenshot until the Load Game / Exit buttons are bright red; 3 probes ≈ 25 s was typical). TIP (lane F): reset `SavedGames\` to a fixed file set before every run — the Load dialog row positions depend on how many files are listed, so a constant set means the click path never has to be re-derived (with the 4-file set ref-turn2 sits at (400,348), not (400,436)). PowerShell over SSH mangles quoting badly: send snippets base64 as `powershell -EncodedCommand`, or use `-ExecutionPolicy Bypass -File`. Lane F left `C:\SOTS\shimdist-fpu` + `C:\SOTS\ui\f{deploy,grab,fpu}.ps1` + `C:\SOTS\ui\preF\` (the pre-lane-F SavedGames snapshot, restored) in place. VM RESTORED: recap build `recap-7584bad-20260908T0615Z`, `hooks=trace`, SavedGames back to the 7-file pre-F set, main menu verified by screenshot. GOTCHA (lane V, third confirmation): the >60 s startup is REAL - the Kerberos intro was still on screen at t+30 s and the main menu appeared at ~t+70 s. GOTCHA (lane V): `type <text>` via the click helper did **NOT** register in the game's text fields this session (neither the Create Game name nor the Save Game file name took SendKeys); the workaround is to accept the default name and **rename the `.sav` on disk** - the Load dialog lists files by FILENAME. SAVEDGAMES IS NOW **8 FILES**: the pre-existing 7 plus `zuul-turn5.sav` (a species-5 save, see the Zuul row). Row positions are UNCHANGED for existing lanes because `zuul-turn5` sorts last: **ref-turn2 is still (400,436)**, zuul-turn5 is the new row 8 at (400,465), rows 29 px apart from y=262 - verified by screenshot `verify/results/shim/eventlive/load-dialog-8files.png`. The three autosaves now belong to the Zuul game. Lane V left `C:\SOTS\shimdist-v` + `C:\SOTS\ui\v{deploy,release,click}.ps1`. VM RESTORED: recap build `recap-7584bad-20260908T0615Z`, `hooks=trace`, main menu verified by screenshot. LANE U (2026-09-08): left `C:\SOTS\shimdist-u` + `C:\SOTS\ui\u{deploy,release}.ps1` in place. SavedGames is STILL 8 FILES (the three autosaves now belong to the Zuul game at turn 15) - **ref-turn2 is still (400,436)**, zuul-turn5 still (400,465). A QEMU-level screenshot (feed `screendump /tmp/vm140.ppm` to `qm monitor 140` on spicy, then scp the .ppm) is more reliable than the click helper's `shot` action and does not need the game window. FOURTH confirmation of the >60 s startup: the Kerberos intro was still on screen at t+45 s, the main menu at ~t+85 s. VM RESTORED: recap build `recap-7584bad-20260908T0615Z`, `hooks=trace`, main menu verified by screenshot. |
 | Zuul double-roll (behavioural) | verify | verified | high | 100% | 2026-09-08 | **CLOSED by lane V 2026-09-08.** No species-5 save existed, so lane V MADE one on VM140: a custom game with only Zuul left in the Available Species pool (both players Zuul), 4 End Turns under `shim.cfg.recapb3`. **8 calls, 8 compared, 0 diverged, exit 0.** All four researching calls have `species=5` and the generator advances by TWO, not one: `left` 540->538 / 522->520 / 504->502 / 485->483, `next_index` +2 each, `mt` hash unchanged; `ours` reproduced every post-state bit-for-bit. Save `verify/results/saves/zuul-turn5-species5.sav` (48559ab5b719b332, 59,131 B, turn 5, homeworld Gallandro) and on the VM as `C:\SOTS\SavedGames\zuul-turn5.sav`. NOT yet exercised by it: a Zuul tech COMPLETION (node 144 was at ~4,700 of 5,000 after 5 turns - one more End Turn gets there), so `SetResearched` and the Zuul boarding-pod grant are still untouched. Report `findings/subsystems/eventlive-verification.md` §5 **EXTENDED by lane U 2026-09-08: the double roll and the COMPLETION PATH together.** `zuul-turn5` + 10 more End Turns (turn 5 -> 15) under the same config: **20 calls, 20 compared, 0 diverged, exit 0**, with TWO Zuul completions. Call 2 (turn 7, alloc {144,1376}) advances the generator by two (`left` 449->447, `next_index` 175->177) AND runs the unlock cascade in the same call - node 144 -> state 4 / order 21 / turn_researched 7, nodes 132 and 136 -> state 2 with cost_rp 10000 / 16000 and turn_available 7, `next_id` 10->12, `observed_techs` 396->440. Note the ZUUL tree unlocks only 132 and 136 from tech 144 where the HUMAN tree also unlocks 142, so this is an independent instance of the cascade, not a repeat. Trace `verify/traces/unlock-b3-zuul.jsonl.gz` |
 | budget tail coverage (expenses/aid/debt) | verify | backlog | — | 0% | 2026-09-08 | 8 ComputeBudget slots were always 0 in ref-turn2 (no sliders, no aid, no debt, no handicap). Need a save with expense sliders, a debtor and a research-aid treaty to exercise ExpenseTotal + the aid/bonus tail . CONFIRMED AND WORSE 2026-09-08 (lane R, 4284 calls): **13 of 22 slots are 0 on every call** - tradeIncome, shipCarriedPop, secondaryManager, bonusIncome, systemIncomeNeg, debtInterest, construction, expenses, researchMoneyGiven, savingsGiven, tra, researchPointsGiven, trp |
 | hook GetDifficultyMods | meta | backlog | — | 0% | 2026-09-08 | B1 derived the two difficulty rows from trace values (AI maintenance divisor 3, research x1.5) instead of snapshotting them; hook it properly so they stop being constants |
@@ -119,3 +119,7 @@ Status flow: `backlog → in-progress → mapped → verified` (or `blocked`).
 | CLEAN-RESULT DISCIPLINE: how a 0-divergence run was kept honest | meta | verified | high | 100% | 2026-09-08 | NEW (lane U). A clean result was EXPECTED here, which is exactly when a hook that silently models nothing slips through. Three things made that hard to hide and all three fired: (1) the 'did nothing' answer is KNOWN - it is `INT_MAX / 0 / -1`, precisely what lane V's report shows - so there is no null model that passes; (2) the collector ran on all 35 calls, not just the 4 completions, and had to come back EMPTY on the 31 quiet ones - an over-collecting transcription would have pushed `next_id` TOO HIGH and made those calls newly divergent; (3) the shim log prints per-call counters (`completions= unlocked= otch_appends= roll_draws= failures= depth= name_unreadable=`), so a clean compare with zeros on a completion call would have been visible as a clean compare of nothing. Reusable pattern for any lane whose expected outcome is 'no divergence' |
 | Prereq semantics come from the CODE, not the tech files | subsystem | verified | high | 100% | 2026-09-08 | NEW (lane U). `TechTree::PrereqsMet` 0x0057d8e0 (whole function): a prerequisite set is an **AND over groups, each group an OR over techs**, held as a flat entry array at `TechDef+0x88` (stride 8, `TechDef*` at +0) plus a vector of `{int start; int count}` groups at `TechDef+0x98/+0x9c` (stride 8). A tech satisfies its group only when its node exists IN THIS TREE and is state 4. TWO EDGE CASES THE DATA FILES DO NOT SUGGEST: **zero groups -> TRUE** (a tech with no `requires` is gated only by its parent edge), and **a group with zero entries -> FALSE, failing the whole test** (the inner loop cannot break, so the outer one exits with that group uncounted) - a 'vacuously true empty OR' reading gets this exactly backwards. Also `TechDef+0xb0`: a byte that excludes a node from the availability sweep entirely; named `TechDef_off_NoAutoAvailable` for what it DOES - the tech-file keyword `unlock_explicitly` matches the behaviour but ParseTech 0x0058b050 shows no reference to 0xb0, so the link is a HYPOTHESIS. `findings/subsystems/unlock-cascade.md` |
 | per-lane addresses.d fragment (second use) | meta | verified | high | 100% | 2026-09-08 | Lane U wrote `ghidra/addresses.d/lane-u.json` (12 entries; header 615 -> 627) rather than touching the shared `addresses.json`, and staged every sots-re change by explicit path. No sweep, no lost authorship. Duplicate-name detection did its job: `TechDef_off_Name` had to be checked against the shared file before being added |
+| P2-U tech unlock cascade | phase2 | verified | high | 95% | 2026-09-08 | RESEARCH SLICE CLOSED. Prediction COMMITTED BEFORE THE BUILD (engine 405ba41, docs/U-unlock.md 4, incl. 4.6 listing five ways the model could be falsified and the symptom of each). Outcome: 35 compared calls across THREE workloads, 0 divergences, tracecmp exit 0 on all three (first End Turn 3/0, five-turn 15/0, Zuul turn 5->15 20/0). End-Turn oracle checked FIRST (bb4fd9ac.../978041ac..., lane R's and lane V's hashes) - a clean compare from a build that moved the game would be worthless. ANTI-VACUITY EVIDENCE, which is the point: call 9 was NOT lane V's call (from turn 5 the AI picked a different target) - it completed tech 9 and unlocked three nodes at costs 13000/35000/4000 that appear in NO earlier report and were predicted by nobody, reproduced with zero divergences, so the model cannot have memorised numbers that did not occur. The collector also ran on all 35 calls and had to come back EMPTY on the 31 quiet ones (over-collecting would have pushed next_id TOO HIGH). Guards 9 undeclared in 2 calls vs 10 predicted - the miss is WORKLOAD not code (player+0x3b4 gone because the pending-roll byte was already 0; +0x196 replaced by +0x130 because a different tech completed) |
+| Zuul completion (double roll + cascade) | verify | verified | high | 100% | 2026-09-08 | Lane U took it: call 2, turn 7, species 5 - `left` 449->447 (DOUBLE ROLL) AND the cascade in the SAME call, next_id 10->12, observed_techs 396->440. Independent instance: the Zuul tree unlocks only 132/136 from tech 144 where the Human tree also unlocks 142 |
+| RollResearchEvent draw - why it never fires | verify | mapped | high | 90% | 2026-09-08 | Lane U's honest limit: roll_draws was 0 on ALL 35 calls. The draw is modelled, its inputs are read pre-call and reported in every record, and region:rng compares clean - but THE BRANCH HAS NEVER BEEN SEEN TO FIRE. The reason is a real finding: ResearchRollPending is normally consumed by ServerPlayer::ProcessTurn BEFORE ProcessResearch, because that site fires when the progress ratio crosses its threshold - exactly the turns approaching completion. In the Zuul run it is true for turns 8-12 and flips FALSE on turn 13, the turn before completion on turn 14. So lane V's call-9 draw was the RARE case and lane R's "15/15" the common one. Three sessions: 0 / 1 / 0. Closing it needs a purpose-built save |
+| VM: use QEMU screendump, not the click helper's shot | meta | verified | high | 100% | 2026-09-08 | Lane U: `qm monitor 140` screendump is more reliable than the click helper's `shot`. Also the >60 s startup got its FOURTH confirmation (menu at ~t+85 s) |