lane AP merged: P is two species branches not three sites; three gates closed; rule 23 gains predict-at-the-site

campaign/DASHBOARD.md

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 # SotS RE campaign — coverage dashboard
 
-Generated 2026-09-09 04:56 UTC · `sots-re` @ 1fecff8,2026-09-09 · `sots-engine` @ 989c692,2026-09-08 (240 commits) · regenerate with `tools/dashboard.py`
+Generated 2026-09-09 05:36 UTC · `sots-re` @ f14e845,2026-09-09 · `sots-engine` @ 989c692,2026-09-08 (240 commits) · regenerate with `tools/dashboard.py`
 
 > **North star:** A functional reimplementation of the engine — behavior-equivalent, NOT byte-for-byte
 
 ## 1. Map coverage (campaign/board.md)
 
-419 targets · mapped-or-better **372/419** `[█████████░] 89%` · verified **330/419** `[████████░░] 79%`
+422 targets · mapped-or-better **375/422** `[█████████░] 89%` · verified **333/422** `[████████░░] 79%`
 
 | Status | Count | % |
 |---|---:|---:|
-| verified | 330 | 79% |
+| verified | 333 | 79% |
 | mapped | 42 | 10% |
 | in-progress | 4 | 1% |
 | backlog | 41 | 10% |
@@ -22,23 +22,23 @@ Generated 2026-09-09 04:56 UTC · `sots-re` @ 1fecff8,2026-09-09 · `sots-engine
 | control-flow | 32 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34 |
 | subsystems | 4 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
 | engine | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 |
-| verify | 102 | 15 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 155 |
+| verify | 104 | 15 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 157 |
 | phase2 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
-| meta | 84 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 91 |
+| meta | 85 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 92 |
 | other | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
 
 ## 2. Binary understanding
 
 - RTTI type descriptors: **1,924** (`Game::` 1,404, `Mars::` 194; serializable types 179)
 - Classes with recovered member layouts: **384** / 1,598 named classes `[██░░░░░░░░] 24%` — `objects/layouts.json` (serializer recovery) plus classes recovered by hand in `struct-recovery.md` + `schema-gaps-resolved.md`. Note 179 types are *serializable*; the recovery also reaches non-serializable ones, so this is not a subset of that
-- Functions: **41,411** (parsed from `01-fingerprint.md`); named/annotated in the **address contract** (`ghidra/addresses.json`, not Ghidra's full rename count): **1283**, verified **1152** `[█████████░] 90%`
+- Functions: **41,411** (parsed from `01-fingerprint.md`); named/annotated in the **address contract** (`ghidra/addresses.json`, not Ghidra's full rename count): **1291**, verified **1160** `[█████████░] 90%`
 
 ## 3. Data layer
 
 - Catalogs: **1,595/1,595** files parsed (91 block kinds in `schema_stats.json`), dangling cross-refs **0** (`crosslink.json`)
 - Oracle `mars-parse`: **1,531/1,531** files agree `[██████████] 100%`
 - Oracle `mars-text`: **64/64** files agree `[██████████] 100%`
-- Saves: **35/35** real saves strict-clean — strict exit 0, 0 errors, 0 warnings
+- Saves: **38/38** real saves strict-clean — strict exit 0, 0 errors, 0 warnings
 - Design rules: **127/127** stock designs pass `[██████████] 100%`
 - Value domains: **490/724** typed fields have been seen to vary `[███████░░░] 68%` — the other **234** have only ever held one value across the corpus, so their typing is untested (`value-domain-census.md`)
 
@@ -112,7 +112,7 @@ Detail: `verify/results/standalone/report.txt`.
 
 ## 7. Verification ledger
 
-- ✅ Saves strict: 35/35 (strict exit 0, 0 errors, 0 warnings)
+- ✅ Saves strict: 38/38 (strict exit 0, 0 errors, 0 warnings)
 - ✅ Design rules: 127/127
 - ✅ oracle mars-parse 1531/1531 · ✅ oracle mars-text 64/64
 - ✅ Compare harness present (`verify/harness/compare/`)
@@ -133,11 +133,11 @@ Most recent open:
 
 ## 9. Delta since previous dashboard
 
-- verified targets: 329 → 330 (+1) · mapped-or-better: 371 → 372 (+1)
+- verified targets: 330 → 333 (+3) · mapped-or-better: 372 → 375 (+3)
 - engine LOC: 58,647 → 58,647 (+0) · test files: 122 → 122 (+0) · checks: 4,257 → 4,257 (+0)
-- addresses verified: 1,151 → 1,152 (+1) · recovered layouts: 384 → 384 (+0) · open questions: 26 → 26 (+0)
+- addresses verified: 1,152 → 1,160 (+8) · recovered layouts: 384 → 384 (+0) · open questions: 26 → 26 (+0)
 - standalone leaves closed: 45 → 45 (+0) · leaves still diverging: 63 → 63 (+0)
 
 ---
 warnings: board.md: unknown types subsystems; mars-rng.md: no oracle total row parsed; mars-stream.md: no oracle total row parsed; mars-vfs.md: no oracle total row parsed
-<!-- dashboard-metrics {"verified": 330, "mapped_plus": 372, "targets": 419, "loc": 58647, "tests": 122, "checks": 4257, "addr_verified": 1152, "addr_total": 1283, "layouts": 384, "open_q": 26, "sa_closed": 45, "sa_left": 63} -->
+<!-- dashboard-metrics {"verified": 333, "mapped_plus": 375, "targets": 422, "loc": 58647, "tests": 122, "checks": 4257, "addr_verified": 1160, "addr_total": 1291, "layouts": 384, "open_q": 26, "sa_closed": 45, "sa_left": 63} -->

guides/method-rules.md

@@ -290,6 +290,15 @@ exactly, an empty container.
 **A float literal in this image is a widened `float`, not a `double`.** It has now bitten the money
 chain, the bankruptcy divisor and the gate constant. Read the four bytes; do not assume the decimal.
 
+> **Corollary (2026-09-09).** *Predict at the site, not at the bracket.* Lane AP predicted every
+> spy-half draw exactly and still got its headline prediction wrong: it had forecast the whole
+> `OnAllCombatDone_Tail` total, and the total moved because an **unrelated subsystem entered the
+> bracket** — the trade-raid roll, growing 2 → 8 words as the AI's navy went 157 → 251 ships. A
+> bracket total is a sum over every subsystem inside it, so quoting one commits you to modelling all
+> of them. Predict and report **per site, by return address**; let the bracket total be the check on
+> your arithmetic rather than the claim. (The consolation is that the surprise was itself a result:
+> an independent live re-confirmation of another lane's per-fleet model, on a different map.)
+
 ## 24. Never reuse a build directory across trees — a stale binary measures cleanly
 
 The integrator's gate rsync excludes `build*` to save transfer time, so the remote build directory