Y: outcomes -- four predictions held, one was wrong in its framing and the correction is the result

docs/Y-standalone-rng-and-tail.md

@@ -131,3 +131,70 @@ This lane does not fix it: the file is another lane's. It is measured and report
 
 **Falsification.** If no `maxIncome` in the int32 range separates the two constants, the correction
 is real but inert and should be recorded as such.
+
+---
+
+# Outcomes
+
+Written after the run, against the predictions above. Nothing above was edited.
+
+## P-Y1 — held exactly
+
+16 words on both calibrated pairs, all attributed to the trade-raid phase, `left` 379 and 359. The
+player vector read 8 on both, as the wire says. The falsification table's other branches did not
+fire: not 8 (the NPC gate was open), not 24 (the refugee gate was not).
+
+## P-Y2 — held exactly
+
+Residual 4 on the turn-4→5 pair and 2 on the turn-5→6 pair, matching the per-call-site split
+(2 detection + 2 research, and 2 detection + 0 research). The state block is byte-identical in both
+cases and only `left` differs, so the two instruments disagree about nothing.
+
+**The answer to the milestone question is therefore "no", by 4 words and by 2.**
+
+One thing this pair of numbers does *not* establish, and the prediction should have said so: the
+residual is a subtraction, so it confirms the **sum** of the modelled and unmodelled terms, not each
+term separately. The static bound is what carries the 16; this arithmetic corroborates it.
+
+## P-Y3 — held
+
+480 fields over 80 player-records across 11 saves, 0 mismatches, 0 dangling owned-system ids. The
+same check runs inside every turn and is printed as a phase note.
+
+## P-Y4 — held, and the shape of the result is more useful than the claim
+
+`--commit-blocked` closes 29 and regresses 17 on the first reference pair, and closes 13 and
+regresses 19 on the second. Every regressed leaf is in the unmodelled set: `almem` x8, `inc` x3,
+`sav` x3, three of the ship census. Nothing outside it moved.
+
+So "committing makes it worse" is **not** what the measurement says: on the first pair the turnstats
+subsystem is net +7 and on the second it is net -9. The record is right in six fields and wrong in
+five, and which way the net falls depends on the save. The phase stays blocked, and it becomes a
+clean +24 the moment the alliance mask and the budget land.
+
+## P-Y5 — WRONG in its framing, and the correction is the result
+
+The prediction said the two constants differ "for some maxIncome reachable in a real game" and that
+the smallest such value could be found by a linear scan. The scan found it immediately, and the
+framing -- inherited from the phrase "one ulp out on large empires" -- was the wrong picture
+entirely.
+
+`trunc(m / -0.15)` and `trunc(m / -0.15000000596046448)` differ for **every m divisible by 3**: 1000
+of the first 3000 integers, smallest `m = 3` giving -20 against -19. It is not precision loss at
+scale. `m / 0.15` is an exact integer whenever 3 divides m, and the two constants straddle it.
+
+Measured on the corpus by inverting the stored limit: **5 of 25 player-records would get a different
+stored value from the engine's current constant than the game wrote.** The defect is live, it is a
+whole unit rather than an ulp, and it is one third of all inputs rather than a tail.
+
+The file belongs to another lane in flight, so it is reported and not fixed here.
+
+## An unpredicted result: the blocked input is recoverable from every save
+
+The elimination limit is injective in the maximum-income sum it is computed from (slope about 6.67),
+so it inverts. Every save in the corpus therefore states, for every player that owns anything, the
+exact sum of its systems' maximum money outputs -- which is the term that blocks `ComputeBudget`,
+both savings phases, the bankruptcy limits and five fields of the turn record.
+
+That was not predicted and is the most useful thing this lane found. The same inversion recovers the
+protection-limit factor as 3.3 from the saves, independently of the game data files.