Z: P9 outcome -- turn 64, one word, every clause held

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alex 2026-09-08 10:24:17 -04:00
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@ -246,3 +246,28 @@ J's own cheap prediction — a plain fleet battle costs the same as a peaceful t
Caveats in `sots-re/findings/control-flow/tail-rng-ledger.md` §10.2; the short version is that this is one
auto-resolved encounter against an NPC, `Auto Resolve` may not take a manually-fought battle's path, and a
cost of 0 is the easiest number in the world to produce by accident.
---
## 9. P9 outcome — held on every clause
The game was played to turn 64.
| | predicted at turn 34 | measured at turn 64 |
|---|---|---|
| turn of the first draw | 64 | **64** |
| `np_min_life` at that turn | 0 | 0 (`np_within5` = 0, `expired` = 1) |
| `predict_words` | 1 | **1** |
| node-line decay `rng` delta | 1 | **1** |
| `OnAllCombatDone_Tail` total | 1 | **1** |
| bracket | `ProcessTurn` + 1 | 20 + 1 = **21**, residual **0** |
Not one of the four falsification branches fired. `predict_words` is computed at hook entry from the
transcribed `RemainingLife` predicate, *before* the original runs, so this is a real check of the model —
unlike the 63 preceding turns where it said 0, the measurement said 0, and nothing was checked.
**And the instrument's own weakest point was exercised on the same turn.** §4 of the finding flagged that
every live measurement so far had sat inside a single MT block, so the block-chain code had only ever run in
host tests. On turn 64 `ProcessTurn` entered with `left = 11` and left with `left = 615` — it crossed a
block boundary, the generator twisted, and the ledger reported `11 + (624 − 615) = 20`. The bracket still
reconciled to a residual of 0.