diff --git a/docs/Z-tail-rng.md b/docs/Z-tail-rng.md index 3b27a9e..3314429 100644 --- a/docs/Z-tail-rng.md +++ b/docs/Z-tail-rng.md @@ -219,3 +219,30 @@ behind it is the honest form of this prediction. The third case is the one to watch: it is the only way this workload can produce a **non-zero residual**, which every prediction so far has said should be 0 on a quiet turn. + + +--- + +## 8. P10 outcome — falsified, and the falsification is the result + +`res_no_battle` flipped to **0** for the first time in 55 turns, the player's fleet was destroyed, and the +measured cost was: + +| | words | +|---|---| +| `ApplyEncounterResult` (the battle) | **0** | +| `OnAllCombatDone_Tail` | **0** | +| `StrategyServer::ProcessTurn` | 22 | +| bracket total / residual | 22 / **0** | + +P10's main claim ("greater than 0") is **wrong**, and it fell into its own first falsification branch: the +resolver really has no draw on a plain battle path. The residual stayed 0, so combat proper drew nothing +either — the third branch, the one worth watching, did not fire. + +The consequence is worth more than the prediction would have been: **a reimplementation can model a +strategic turn's RNG and nothing about combat, and still reproduce the generator through a battle.** Lane +J's own cheap prediction — a plain fleet battle costs the same as a peaceful turn — holds exactly. + +Caveats in `sots-re/findings/control-flow/tail-rng-ledger.md` §10.2; the short version is that this is one +auto-resolved encounter against an NPC, `Auto Resolve` may not take a manually-fought battle's path, and a +cost of 0 is the easiest number in the world to produce by accident.